Originally Published on Quora:
It is two weeks since the grand event on September 20, 2019.
On that day, Finance Minister announced a slew of measures which were supposed to give a push to the struggling economy and the sluggish stock market.
Market reaction was wonderful with the major indices going up sharply on that day.
Let us see the happy picture.
This was on September 20, 2019:
There was cheer all around with experts on TV Channels promising new highs very soon. Cut in corporate taxes is going to help the business in a big way, GST cuts will act as another booster and what not.
Market is a voting machine in the short run.
It voted and Monday, September 23, 2019 was again up , up and away kind of day.
A 569 points gain followed by another 326 points on Monday. That is 895 over just two days.
Manna from heaven.
All the woes of economy brushed aside just by few announcements.
Life in the market was good for some folks for these two days.
But there are doubting thomases like me. We seldom set much store in the knee jerk reactions of the governments. After all , governments only mess up things. Setting them right is not their core competence. It applies to every government that existed before and will exist in future.
I wrote this:
What happened yesterday is one response to artificial respiration. For a real up move, these stocks have to breathe on their own. That is something not happening over last one year. That is again something which may not happen over next few months.
Automobile Sector hoped for a cut in GST rates. In the meeting held on Friday, there was no such proposal. So these stocks may lose the steam built up yesterday.
Push, accelerate, drive, brake and slow down. This is what is happening to the economy.
The guys on TV scream at the top of their voices when farmers loans are waived off. That is bad for economy, we are told.
They show unbounded joy when the same money is thrown at them. That is good for economy, we are told.
Well, the Finance Minister has done whatever she could do. Market has celebrated. After the hang over, there is normal life with all the attendant problems. So the market will go on doing what it always does.
Fooling most of the people most of the time.
Link to the above passage:
Review Today on October 05, 2019:
The question is about the market performance after September 22.
Only two weeks have elapsed since the big cheerful day.
Corporate tax cut is still there, so are the bank mergers and recapitalization of these permanently ailing banks.
Another interest rate cut is also announced by RBI to boost the lending by the banks.
Sops given to the automobile sector are still on.
But there is something called reality which hits very hard at times. Reality does not care for the props.
Sooner or later, market accepts the reality.
It was a voting machine on September 20, 2019.
Two weeks later, it has taken the role of a weighing machine. Fluff is out. The actual weight is told.
This was NIFTY yesterday:
In just two weeks, the up move is gone.
NIFTY is now lower than where it was on September 23, 2019.
Predicting the market is an exercise in futility.
Experts get the egg splattered on their faces so often that they probably start enjoying the feeling.
They are paid to talk so they have to.
We simple folks are in the market to try our hand in getting some profits. Remaining busy with the thoughts of likely NIFTY? SENSEX moves does not get us anywhere.
It was true years ago and remains true today.
Market will behave exactly same way as it has behaved over the years—- Fooling most of the people most of the time.
Welcome to the reality of the markets.
Thanks for reading.