The momentum in NIFTY continues after March Expiry on Thursday. Friday saw NIFTY gain another 53 points and continue its move towards the all time high.
The journey to 11760 looks simple and straightforward from here. But markets are not known to be so easy to guess. Let us wait and see how this move unfolds.
Looking at the Asia Markets and SGX NIFTY this morning, NIFTY near 11700 today looks like a possibility.
This was my take on the likely NIFTY behavior over next few days.
Talking about NIFTY in a generalized way does not make money. We have to look for strength and weakness in individual stocks and take a trade based on a method and conviction.
For that we have to look below the surface and find out the trades.
NIFTY has gained 14.93% over the 365 day period. A very good gain indeed. In the same period 24 stocks are gainers and 26 are losers. Interesting, isn’t it ?
That means there is a skewed distribution of strength and weakness. It is not a good story everywhere.
So we keep on doing what we have been doing, NIFTY going one way or the other does not impact the trades much.
Friday Trades :
TATASTEEL PUT 480 was bought at Rs. 5.20.
TATAMOTORS PUT 160 was bought at Rs. 3.50.
Bpth the stocks moved higher and the PUT prices came down. We wait with these two.
Trades for Today :
INDUSINDBK has gained 20.49% over last 30 days. It maintains the trend in the 7 day period also even after a fall of 2.2% on Friday. That makes it a candidate for a CALL.
CALL 1860 @ Rs. 30-32 would be my choice. Lot Size 300, Maximum Risk — Rs. 9600.
BIOCON remains week over 30 day period. The problem is with 7 day status. It is just flat with neither gain nor loss. Normally it would mean avoiding a trade. But I am going with the trade taking a risk. Readers are free to ignore the trade if they so wish.
BIOCON PUT 580 @ Rs. 6.60-7.00 would be my choice for a trade. Lot Size 900, Maximum Risk Rs. 6300.
Trade cautiously, trade profitably.
Disclaimer: This post and examples are for teaching purpose only and are not meant as advice/suggestion to trade in these stocks. Trading in Futures and Options can lead to big losses and should be done with appropriate knowledge and advice only. Mentioning the stocks here does not imply that I have a trading position or likely to take a trade in these stocks.
Comments
YOGI April 1, 2019 at 10:17 am
Trades which i bought for this month till expiry :
ICICIBANK 430 CE @ 3.8 (
VOLTAS 650 CE @ 17
RAMCOCEM 760 CE @ 25
VEDL 200 CE @ 5
HCLTECH 1120 CE @ 22
MARICO 360 CE @ 8
Total investment to buy these is 95,150
Target : Doubling capital or to exit when net profit is 1 lakh ..
i shall update the status month end 1 day before expiry or as n when i exit when net profit 1 lakh is reached but im confident that ill reach my target midway this month ….
My suggestion : Buying PUTs will lead to huge loss as NIfty will go up …
Replyadmin April 1, 2019 at 10:20 am
All the best.
Thanks for sharing.
We shall review and discuss after Friday.
Cheers.
ReplyAzar Shaikh April 1, 2019 at 10:32 am
Hi yogi we cant predict market 100%.Engaging 95000 money at once not a good move.
ReplyRavi Kumar April 1, 2019 at 10:33 am
Thanks for sticking your neck. Will be a good learning for everyone.
ReplyPlease share your updated frequently.
Vishal Jain April 2, 2019 at 7:58 am
Hi Yogi
ReplyAppreciate your knowledge and aggression. I believe the purpose of this forum was to suggest option buying basis the strategy which is simple to understand , transparent, tested with proven records and can be traded with less capital. If your suggestions follow these conditions you are most welcome else requested not to dilute the purpose of forum..regds Vishal
admin April 2, 2019 at 8:25 am
Dear Vishal,
Yogi’s way of trading is different. We should have no problem with that. he is trying to take advantage of the bullish trend by going all in with his CALL trades. Let us not judge immediately. It is always good to have another point of view. We shall see the results and then discuss.
Cheers.
Replyarnab April 1, 2019 at 10:50 am
@yogi,i don’t know how you did the stock picking, but if you have purchased those shares before today, i guess you have already doubled your money and you are a rockstar 🙂 congrats for that, i have 1 bajaj-auto pe 2700 bought today at 24, and castrolind 180ce @1, lets see how it goes.
ReplyYOGI April 1, 2019 at 11:55 am
Nifty may touch 12000 , so if stocks are very week then buying pe may work .. As Nifty goes up , other stocks will also go up …
ReplySantosh April 1, 2019 at 10:52 am
Yogi you are very brave!
ReplyYOGI April 1, 2019 at 11:15 am
Thanks a ton for the support .. Ill share my trades … Others just do paper trading or just observe as its risky for others to put hard earned money .. I am trading with the profits made from previous months so if trades go against me then still i will not be in loss .. So my suggestion for others would be to just observe n i shall trade n take risk …
ReplyAlok April 1, 2019 at 12:29 pm
Dear Pramod sir,
ReplyIndusInd technically looks quite weak, I already bought 1700 put on friday.
I can be completely wrong and your experience can triumph by expiry though.
Regards,
Alok
admin April 1, 2019 at 12:41 pm
Dear Alok,
You know I do not care for technical analysis and my not caring has worked great so far. Yes there are occasional trades ( more than occasional actually ) which go wrong but as long as I am able to get about 30-35% of them right, it is fine with me.
Before market open today, INDUSINDBK was a gainer by about 20% in 30 days. What could be a more bullish sign? The 2.2% decline on Friday was a warning which I chose to ignore in view of likely strong market today. well, market is strong, INDUSINDBK is weak. We can not do anything about it. Bought at Rs. 30 now it is at Rs. 26. Gone wrong but not a major concern.
You bought a PUT, it is okay. but by my method there was no signal for PUT. luck too is a factor at most times, only you can not plan for being lucky. i wanted to buy a PUT in ZEEL today. my method did not suggest a PUT. So I stayed away. That stock is down. BIOCON too was taken after slightly ignoring the method. This stock did not go down.
That is life in the market. You lose some, you win some, sometime you win none.
Cheers.
ReplyAlok April 1, 2019 at 3:57 pm
Can’t agree more sir. Sticking to what we are best at is the best thing to do – this is what I have learnt from you. Am still a novice in the markets, learning this and that.
ReplyYOGI April 1, 2019 at 12:31 pm
New additions : MY TRADES
HDFCBANK 2400 CE at 27
hindalco 220 CE at 7.9
ASIANPAINTS 1500 CE AT 40
BAJFINANCE 3200 CE AT 44
BAJAJFINSV 7250 CE AT 180
RELIANCE 1400 CE AT 38
INFY 760 CE AT 23
AUROPHARMA 810 CE AT 22
DABUR 400 PE AT 10 ( ONLY PE ON MY LIST )
HINDZINC 295 CE AT 6
TATASTEEL 550 CE AT 15
RBLBANK 700 CE AT 15
JUBLFOOD 1500 CE AT 48
APOLLOHOSP 1260 CE AT 49
MUTHOOTFIN 630 CE AT 19
ReplySantosh April 1, 2019 at 12:43 pm
Yogi are these even real trades?
ReplyDeepesh April 1, 2019 at 12:46 pm
Yogi ji…It seems you are doing a paper trade
ReplyYOGI April 1, 2019 at 12:54 pm
last 15 trades r paper trades to learn in live market .. First 6 trades r real trades ….
ReplyAnonymous April 1, 2019 at 1:12 pm
be fearful when other are greedy. Have seen enough such bull markets which become bear in 1 day. Pramod sir, wat you are doing is absolutely right. SImple is what makes money and market is there to deceive people by showing bullinsh or bearish sign.
ReplyI wonder what changed in last 1 month. Did India suddently become USA or all the black money is recovered overnight? These are just ways to trap retail investors especially.
Akhil Sharma April 1, 2019 at 2:08 pm
Instead of buying an OTM put, why not buy an ITM put. At least it won’t go to zero.
ReplyTharik April 1, 2019 at 3:51 pm
By the way it can go to zero if the underlying stock moves in the opposite direction and ends above or below the strike price that is bought. Eventually the losses can be higher
ReplySreenivas April 1, 2019 at 5:45 pm
Dear Sir,
How about INDIACEM for CALL options. It met both 30day high and 7 day criteria. Can we go with INDIACEM 122.5 CE?
ReplyRaveendran K A April 2, 2019 at 8:36 am
India Cements is quoting at one month high and the short term charts look bullish. Eminently qualifies for CALL buying.
ReplyKiran Vemuri April 1, 2019 at 6:34 pm
Pramod ji, Please share the training material. I have requested multiple times without much success
Replyadmin April 1, 2019 at 6:55 pm
A mail has been sent to you separately.
Cheers.
ReplyAzar Shaikh April 1, 2019 at 7:17 pm
Sir Zee is qualified for our Put
Reply