My previous post was written on August 20.
NIFTY had closed at 11470.75 on Friday, August 17. In next two days of trading on August 20 and 21, it is now at 11570.90. Two days, 100 points and our PUTS go down crashing. we are now staring down the barrel. CALLS too have not done wonderfully. GAIL and YESBANK came down heavily from their highs and if the NIFTY trend becomes negative, these are the stocks which may not do well.
What do we do now?
I would like to mention that this site is about learning and not about tips. We learn our lessons from such situations.
Yes, we are in a storm. We were in similar situation in June just 4 days before Expiry. Came out successful on that occasion. It is the market which does it for us. We may come out of trouble this time too or may fail. That will be a losing month for the first time in 4 months. From this we learn the lesson that we are not infallible. No one is. We learn and move on to next month with the same belief which we had at the beginning of the month.
A look at the situation:
A loss is a loss. We should not be afraid to face it.
The figures are not good and they hurt. They hurt more if you started following only from this month. Those who have taken profits in previous months can accept the loss philosophically, for the new followers it may lead to a confidence crisis.
Not learning the lessons :
Many readers have expressed concern about the losing situation. Not a single reader has posted any comment which tells me that learning is in process. When YESBANK CALL 400 went above Rs. 12.00 on Monday, how many of us got out and moved to CALL 410 or CALL 420. No one did that. That was one method of protecting your profit discussed many times earlier. Still no one followed the method. Same thing in L&T FH.
It is about learning and belief.
Let us stay with the trades with hope and expectations. We still have 6 days.
Disclaimer: This post and examples are for teaching purpose only and are not meant as advice/suggestion to trade in these stocks. Trading in Futures and Options can lead to big losses and should be done with appropriate knowledge and advice only. Mentioning the stocks here does not imply that I have a trading position or likely to take a trade in these stocks.
Ravi Kumar August 23, 2018 at 9:41 am
Welcome Back, Sir!Reply
Andy August 23, 2018 at 10:00 am
Good to read your post after a gap! Perhaps this is one of the odd months defying expectations!!Reply
Do you think this pumping up of NIFTY is sustainable? Of course I know you do not care about NIFTY as long as market does what we want.
Just trying to understand… why P/L column is filled in green for many numbers even though the numbers are in negative?
Prince Nahata August 23, 2018 at 10:14 am
By the way notional loss is 90k right now for me.Reply
Prince Nahata August 23, 2018 at 10:02 am
When we take profits and sometimes huge ones we should not be afraid of taking losses.Its through losses we learn important lessons.Reply
There is always another day and another trade.
Tejas Shah August 23, 2018 at 10:16 am
Titan 980 call is not included in P&L snapshotReply
Anand August 23, 2018 at 10:42 am
Rightly said Sir. I also saw couple of them touching ATM but didnt book profit. I am here to learn and not get quick profit tips. Ready to accept complete Loss or little Profit market gives from now on.Reply
Chirag August 23, 2018 at 11:24 am
I understand we are in loss this month…however we had position in weak scrips which was backed by logic and rationale…..and whatever the analysis we do it may still go wrong……even if the markets corrects at this point our put might not be profitable….this is the limitation of option buying and we have to agree to that fact…..and as Prince said….There is always another day and another trade…..but I am still hopeful for this month..Reply
Niloy Roy August 23, 2018 at 1:43 pm
With regards to exiting Yes Bank and L&T, I had the assumption that we need to be ITM then we go for a lower Put or a higher Call. In both cases, we were just ATM or slightly ITM; that is where I thought we should wait. Just like HindPetro is right now at 259 spot. Do tell me if I am conceptually wrong and should enter a lower PE as soon as it becomes ITM ??Reply
admin August 24, 2018 at 8:48 am
Good point Niloy.
You are right when you say that YESBANK was just ITM. The point was that it had gone up from Rs. 4.60 to Rs. 12.50. Most of the traders generally get out much earlier. This time, they did not get out and did not protect the profit also. At least some of the readers might have done that. I was just looking for that.
Bdanam August 24, 2018 at 9:03 am
Sir, I exited yes bank @ 10 and Lt finance holdings in profit @ 5.8on the daas I was expecting trend reversal in nifty will make it down.My theory if it doubles the profit ,then its fine to get out.Reply
Ravi Kumar August 23, 2018 at 3:07 pm
Sir, What is your view on Reliance for Sept Put? I believe its sky rocketed at a record pace and some correction is due… And what Strike you suggestReply
Jayesh August 23, 2018 at 3:44 pm
This is the first month where I have shortlisted all stocks by myself but unfortunately, things are not looking good as of today. Let’s see what the market unfolds.Reply
admin August 24, 2018 at 8:45 am
Keep trying. Success may be just around the corner.Reply
kushal mehta August 23, 2018 at 6:31 pm
Profit and loss are part of game ..no worries sir …Money is like greed sir , instead of learning wer become followerReply
admin August 24, 2018 at 8:45 am
First part, I agree. Money is not greed. It is a goal to be achieved. We are not into trading for fun. Making money is a desirable goal. Only we should remember that we shall not always succeed.Reply
Azar Shaikh August 23, 2018 at 8:07 pm
Sir I Regularly follow your blog and learning. Can we consider support for selection of stock like Tatamotors,Tata global,Heromotocorp,Dr Reddy witnessed strong support at Bottom level.Reply
admin August 24, 2018 at 8:43 am
Big profits are made when the so called supports or resistances are broken. If we get out of the trade at these points we shall never see a big profit.Reply
Alok August 29, 2018 at 4:21 pm
Good evening sir!Reply
Had bought Idea 50 PE at 0.6 after your update. Stuck with the trade and exited today at 0.9!