We are into the last day of the week for trading.
NIFTY closed mildly negative yesterday.
At one stage it was down by more than 80 points but like it has done all through last 7 days, it ended up strong and the entire loss was almost wiped out. We can not say the same about our trades which kept on bleeding further. Now we are down by nearly Rs. 30000 for the month. We did not make good profit in November too so this position is a cause of concern.
It is at such times of doubts that the belief come into play. Belief in our methods helped us become profitable in June. It helped last month to wipe out the losses after being in the red few days before expiry. As far as the current situation is concerned, it is not new for us. We know the likely results too. Either we come out of the bad situation or we end up losing money. In both situations overall picture will remain profitable for the year. The profit figures for the 8 month period May -December will inspire us to keep doing the same things again in 2019 as well.
Here is the current position which we know is not good.
If the one good trade in SUNPHARMA PUT 450 was not taken it would have been an absolute disaster. Thanks to the market for small mercies.
New Trades :
BHARTIARTL is among the weak stocks over last 30 days. Not done well over last 7 days as well. Stock has got decent volatility and if things go right, it can lose a little more than 5% over the 4 trading days left in this month. Current price is about Rs. 315.
We go for PUT 300 at Rs. 1.40- 1.60 . Lot Size is 1700. Maximum risk is Rs. 2720. With things already bad, this is a minor addition to the likely loss. If the trade works out, we make some money on this.
US Markets again made new 52 week lows yesterday. But our markets look to be in complete disconnect with the rest of the world. SGX NIFTY is about 37 points down as I write but let us not read too much into it. We have seen yesterday that 80 points down did not ultimately matter. Market will do whatever it does. No one can predict the outcome.
Trade cautiously, trade profitably.
Disclaimer: This post and examples are for teaching purpose only and are not meant as advice/suggestion to trade in these stocks. Trading in Futures and Options can lead to big losses and should be done with appropriate knowledge and advice only. Mentioning the stocks here does not imply that I have a trading position or likely to take a trade in these stocks.
Manish December 21, 2018 at 9:02 am
To the contrary, Airtel has done well in the last 7 sessions.
admin December 21, 2018 at 10:01 am
Maybe you are right. I had mentioned last 7 days not sessions. Last 7 days had 5 trading sessions in which it had moved slightly lower. Please avoid the trade in case you are not comfortable with it.
Manish December 21, 2018 at 12:46 pm
Even in the last 5 sessions it has moved up. I will avoid this trade.
vishal agarwal December 21, 2018 at 9:11 am
Sir Airtel is opening gap up 1% does this pe still qualify?Reply
admin December 21, 2018 at 9:59 am
We do not take the trade till it shows a down move from the gap up.
Sriram December 21, 2018 at 9:17 am
Please receive this note is in the vein of constructive criticism
It may be belief but also willingness to fine-tune the strategies.
For a few days I have been watching M&M. It has gained strength and looks like it found a temporary bounce, notwithstanding the 30 day losing streak and other indicators.
3 days ago it gave good returns in CE side. Same goes to YESBANK. both are ‘sell’ as per your parameters.
just adding to the discussion of my ‘short term’ vision and possible application of such 🙂
do share your thoughts.Reply
admin December 21, 2018 at 9:59 am
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Nothing is better than success and nothing is worse than a failure. I look at entering a trade based on some guidelines. After that second guessing is not my job. Trades can go either right or wrong. I understand some people are very good at trade management like getting out at some small loss, taking a different position etc. In my view taking the opposite position has as much chance of success as your original trade. Who knows what the market is likely to do?Reply
We took our chances based on a method. I did not work this time. In October, same M&M trades had given me Rs. 58000 in profits. This month it takes back a small part of it. It is alright with me. I am not looking for being right in every trade and every month.
For short term what you have suggested may work but we have to be here in the long term as well.
Different strokes for different folks. When we buy someone is selling and both are right.
Sriram Bhamidipati December 21, 2018 at 10:18 am
I am happy to engage in these discussions for your insights. Needless to say, your experience will always trump few days of shallow observations 🙂Reply
KV Rao December 21, 2018 at 11:27 am
It seems our prayers are answered todayReply
KV Rao December 21, 2018 at 3:01 pm
Bharti is Double money trade
KV Rao December 21, 2018 at 3:02 pm
Can you enable Auto fill for name and email in comments section.Reply
sudhir sirohi December 22, 2018 at 4:53 pm