Come election time and people get busy talking about its impact on the market.
The same discussion goes on again when some state elections are held. As if policies of Tamilnadu or Haryana are going to affect the policy making at the national level.
Yes, there are immediate big moves around election results.
We saw a 15% fall in NIFTY when NDA lost the elections in 2004.
A similar rise was seen when UPA won the second term.
BJP winning the elections in 2014 did not cause the index to go up by a big margin because market had already factored in the victory. There was no surprise.
We talk about business friendly policies, ease of doing business, efficient and fair tax regime and the politics around these subjects.
But market does not care for politics when it tanks like it did in 2001 or in 2008 or 2020.
Similarly it strides ahead without caring about what the ruling dispensation is.
Let us have a look at the numbers.
NIFTY move under different governments:
Sh, Atal Bihari Vajpayee ( Oct 13, 1999 to May 22, 2004):
NIFTY — 1496 to 1560 — ( 4.27% in 55 months)
There was a crash in 2001 taking NIFTY from 1400 levels to below 900.
Subsequent recovery brought it to 1800 level by end of 2003.
Election reversal in May 2004 caused the index to go down sharply again.
Sh. Manmohan Singh ( May 22, 2004 to May 22, 2009)
NIFTY — 1560 to 4116 — ( 163.8% in 60 months)
( May 22, 2009 to May 26, 2014)
NIFTY — 4116 to 7359 — ( 78.8% in 60 months )
Sh. Narendra Modi ( May 26, 2014 to May 30, 2019 )
Nifty — 7359 to 11945 — ( 62.3% in 60 months )
( May 30, 2014 to present — continuing )
NIFTY — 11945 to 17369 – ( 45.4% in 27 months )
Is there a pattern?
The same old theory about market moving higher over a period of time proves in validity again.
Governments and politics do not matter in the long term.
Readers are entitled to their views. Different takes on the same subject makes life interesting.