We begin the February Series today.
Apparently today is the big day — the Union Budget Presentation.
In my view the hype and hoopla surrounding the event is unnecessary and just a waste of time and energy. It is just like a new year party where high on booze we welcome the new year only to find next morning that all the problems of previous year are still there.
Nothing is going to change by the budget . 90 % of traders will still keep losing money . 80% of options will keep expiring worthless . Life of any trader or option buyer is not going to change.
Let us focus on what we do.
Nifty had closed at 10858 in November Expiry and 10779 in December .
Yesterday it was 10830. In two months market has gone nowhere. There was a lot of volatility but the end result was nothing. We made money is another matter.
Similarly the budget event may give some volatile moves today and on Monday but after that we shall be back to the mundane business of day to day trading.
The best thing would be to avoid trading for the day. But trading on such a day is like a ritual. Why miss the opportunity of losing money on a volatile day? Most of the traders lose money and still keep trading. That is life. Let us move on.
Trades for the Day :
ZEEL was in lot of trouble few days back. The stock has since recovered as was likely but it is nobody’s case that those problems have gone away.
The stock options have a very high Implied Volatility. So the premiums are high.
We go for PUT 340 @ Rs. 10-11. Lot Size 1300 Max Risk Rs. 14300.
M&M is another stock with continued weakness . It made the 52 week low at Rs. 661.60 on January 29, 2019. For some reasons it came down and those reasons are not going away in a hurry.
We shall go for PUT 660 @ Rs. 12-13. Lot Size 1000 Max Risk Rs. 13000.
GRASIM is in a continued fall for last few months. We expect this trend to continue.
PUT 700 @ Rs. 16-17 can work out well. Lot Size 750. Max Risk 12750.
On a day with hope and hype we are going with three PUTS. We may see a setback but when contrarian bets work out, they work out very well. And these are not contrarian selections, these are as per their individual trend.
We have 20 trading days in this Expiry and as usual expect to do well.
January Expiry had ended in a profit of Rs. 178000.
For review of January Expiry please read here:
https://optionsnext.com/blog/january-2019-options-buying-continued-expiry-review/
Trade cautiously, trade profitably.
Disclaimer: This post and examples are for teaching purpose only and are not meant as advice/suggestion to trade in these stocks. Trading in Futures and Options can lead to big losses and should be done with appropriate knowledge and advice only. Mentioning the stocks here does not imply that I have a trading position or likely to take a trade in these stocks.
Comments
Suhas February 1, 2019 at 9:08 am
Sir,
ReplyWhat’s your view on icicibank 360 CE. When we look at the 30 day moving average and 7 days, it has performed positive.
Akash February 1, 2019 at 10:31 am
i think it will go down from here just because negative news ( because of chanda kochhar wrongdoing when its comes videocon loan case as per news on various media)
Replyi am thinking about going for icicibank 330PE @4.
any opinion sir?
vishal agarwal February 1, 2019 at 10:32 am
Sir Lic housing finance is in continuous downtrend, if the NBFC crisis worsen I think its put 440 could become a worthwhile trade
ReplyDebashish February 1, 2019 at 1:28 pm
Pramod sir..I pray to god that you show us the path to us in this way and you are showered with lot of blessings !! I took your advice of buying ZEEL 340 PUT and made a handsome profit of 6000. Thank you very much Pramod sir..god bless you !! Please keep the blog running ..
Replybtw : I am in Bangalore..please let me know when you are conducting your next session in Bangalore
SENTHILNATHAN S February 1, 2019 at 1:41 pm
*HIGHLIGHTS OF BUDGET 2019*
Reply*#budget2019*
*Tax*
1. Within 2 years, Tax assessment will be done electronically
2. IT returns processing in just 24 hours
3. Minimum 14% revenue of GST to states by Central Govt.
4. Custom duty has abolished from 36 Capital Goods
5. Recommendations to GST council for reducing GST rates for home buyers
6. *Full Tax rebate upto 5 lakh annual income after all deductions.*
7. Standard deduction has increase from 40000 to 50000
8. Exempt on tax on second self-occupied house
9. Ceiling Limit of TDS u/s 194A has increased from 10000 to 40000
10. Ceiling Limit of TDS u/s 194I has increased from 180000 to 240000
11. Capital tax Benefit u/s 54 has increased from investment in one residential house to two residential houses.
12. Benefit u/s 80IB has increased to one more year i.e. 2020
13. Benefit has given to unsold inventory has increased to one year to two years.
*Other Areas*
14. State share has increased to 42%
15. PCA restriction has abolished from 3 major banks
16. 2 lakhs seats will increase for the reservation of 10%
17. 60000 crores for manrega
18. 1.7 Lakh crore to ensure food for all
19. 22nd AIIMS has to be opened in Haryana
20. Approval has to be given to PM Kisan Yojana
21. Rs. 6000 per annum has to be given to every farmer having upto 2 hectare land. Applicable from Sept 2018. Amount will be transferred in 3 installments
22. National kamdhenu ayog for cows. Rs. 750 crores for National Gokul Mission
23. 2% interest subvention for farmers pursuing animal husbandry and also create separate department for fisheries.
24. 2% interest subvention for farmers affected by natural calamities and additional 3% interest subvention for timely payment.
25. Tax free Gratuity limit increase to 20 Lakhs from 10 Lakhs
26. Bonus will be applicable for workers earning 21000 monthly
27. The scheme, called Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Mandhan, will provide assured monthly pension of Rs. 3,000 with contribution of Rs. 100 per month for workers in unorganized sector after 60 years of age.
28. Our government delivered 6 crores free LPG connections under Ujjawala scheme
29. 2% interest relief for MSME GST registered person
30. 26 weeks of Maternity Leaves to empower the women
31. More than 3 Lakhs crores for defence
32. One lakh digital villages in next 5 years
33. Single window for approval of India film makers
Sumit Ranjan February 1, 2019 at 2:58 pm
Sir why is SBI down inspite of good results?
ReplyNarayanan February 1, 2019 at 3:28 pm
Sir it seems Zee Horror Show Part 2 has already started
Replyvishal agarwal February 1, 2019 at 3:37 pm
As Sir say dont count your chickens before they hatch 😉
Replyvishal agarwal February 1, 2019 at 3:40 pm
Talk of the horror show and M&M gave a good chill in the spine when post budget put 660 fell to 5. It reminded me of Dec expiry when 700pe went from 11 to 4 rs in single session.
Replysakshamjain February 1, 2019 at 3:54 pm
what is your view on sunpharma 380 pe feb expiry bought 2 lots @ 18?
Reply