Nifty turned positive towards close of trading yesterday.
A day earlier we got nothing when NIFTY fell 93 points. We lost more yesterday when this small gain happened. Before we list our woes let us look at how the markets performed over last 20 days.
NIFTY had closed at 10779.80 on December 27, 2018. ( December Expiry )
Yesterday close was 10849.80.
This is a minuscule up move of just 70 points. As flat as it could be. If we listen to the anchors on business channels all day, it appears that markets are doing great. These people are experts and concealing the facts and presenting the noise.
A 70 point move is just insignificant and let us ignore it and move on.
Coming back to our concerns we find that 20 days have already gone by and we have closed just one trade. I know there are readers who have actually booked more profit than the projected profit/loss in these pages. Congratulations to them.
It is still a good thing that with market direction not in favor of our trades and time doing nothing for us we are still keeping our head above water.
Profit has come down to Rs. 20000 from Rs. 45000. It is time to be alert and start booking profit so that we do not end up losers for another month after a losing December 2018.
We keep a watch on BHARATFORG which made a good down move yesterday. Similarly M&M which made new 52 week low and TATASTEEL which is trading near to 52 week low should be watched carefully/exited if we feel that it is reversing.
INFY is another one which is becoming directionless for past two days.
With 5 trading days left, a lot can still happen. We only hope it is good for us.
No additional trades for today.
Trade cautiously, trade profitably.
Disclaimer: This post and examples are for teaching purpose only and are not meant as advice/suggestion to trade in these stocks. Trading in Futures and Options can lead to big losses and should be done with appropriate knowledge and advice only. Mentioning the stocks here does not imply that I have a trading position or likely to take a trade in these stocks.
Comments
Vikas Gupta January 25, 2019 at 9:08 am
I have observed one thing. If I buy options, most of the times I am suffering losses. Recently I started selling options with hedging and it is giving a good return and most importantly, consistently. I am tracking your blog since last March and I see almost 95% of your trades expired worthless except some jackpots which are saving your capital.
ReplyDoesn’t it make sense to start selling options with some hedge where the winning probability is much higher than just buying option which is similar to buying a lottery ticket and hoping for a jackpot?
admin January 25, 2019 at 9:31 am
Dear Vikas,
Thanks for sharing your views.
You have mentioned that you started selling options recently. It is good that you are making profits. Do it for two three years and let us see. I have seen big traders lose more than one year of profits in less than a week in option selling. I wish you do not have to face that situation.
I am okay with the success I am having. The key here is to make big profits from a few trades.As far as consistency is concerned, 6 profitable months out of 8 is quite consistent.
This blog was started with the purpose of establishing that option buying can be profitable.
If I start writing about option selling I will be going against that basic principle. This blog is different and want t t remain different.
You are welcome to share your thoughts. After all if option sellers are not selling, where do we buy?
Cheers.
ReplyCven January 25, 2019 at 10:06 am
Hi vikas plz can u share how do you hedge your position.Tnx in advance.
ReplyCven January 25, 2019 at 10:36 am
Hi Vikas can plz share how do you hedge your positions in option selling.Tnx in adv
ReplyViswanathan January 25, 2019 at 10:45 am
Please advice on Sunpharma and Bharatforge, as Sunpharma is more than 10% away from strike price and Bharatforge seems to reverse from 470.. should we exit now ?
Replyadmin January 25, 2019 at 11:45 am
We have discussed here so many times that we do not bother about the trades which have gone wrong. We entered the trade with the full knowledge of maximum loss. Why second thoughts now?
Cheers.
ReplySenthilnathan January 25, 2019 at 12:11 pm
ZEEL has moved in our favour.
ReplyAll those holding the Put in ZEEL be alert.
ZEEL is one of the most volatile stock and used to move sharply.
Be alert and trade to protect the profit as per your own risk profile.
Pranav January 25, 2019 at 12:22 pm
Booked heromotocorp @78, zeel @15. Pramod sir – suggestions for lower strike for two stocks?
ReplySenthilnathan January 25, 2019 at 1:05 pm
Dear Pranav,
ReplyThe decision is purely based on your risk profile.
Apply your discretionary powers.
I have not taken the HEROMOTOCO trade this time.
As far as ZEEL is concerned, I bought lower strike Put.
Just for information only..decision to trade is purely as per one’s risk profile.
vishal agarwal January 25, 2019 at 1:54 pm
Zeel Crashed…420PE at 45 I had sold it at 6.5.
Replyadmin January 25, 2019 at 2:07 pm
Dear Vishal,
Almost all your trades have done well but you are not there to see the profits. ASHOKLEY, MARUTI and now ZEEL.
Unless you learn to control your fear, there will not be any profits.
Cheers.
Replyvishal agarwal January 25, 2019 at 2:24 pm
Lesson learned sir. Zeel alone could have recovered all the previous losses
Replyvishal agarwal January 25, 2019 at 4:10 pm
Sir one saving grace was, I bought Maruti 6900PE the next day on realizing that it is still weak and going to announce results on 25th(today). Booked today at 465 bought at 94.
ReplyRavi kumar January 25, 2019 at 3:17 pm
Of all these months, this month i lost patience and acted smart by closing my positions in ZEEL, SUN, Bharti(my own trade) early. But Market outsmarted me. 🙁 Lost a huge potential profit.
Replyvishal agarwal January 25, 2019 at 3:50 pm
Same bro. Due to fear of losing out, in case of reversal, I closed all my trades and ran away. Today I can see I missed a potential to make more than I could have imagined. Lesson learnt.
ReplyChirag January 26, 2019 at 4:05 pm
Ravi Kumar,
I had similar situation like you in the same trades that you mentioned plus couple more…..The more we try to do fancy things, the lesser the chances of being profitable….time and again Pramod sir has proved with his teachings that patience really pays off.
ReplyBadrinath January 27, 2019 at 7:57 am
yes i booked zee at 8. if i would have waited i would have earned in lakhs. missed the bus
Replyadmin January 27, 2019 at 8:12 am
The difference between a huge profit and a small profit is the ability to wait when the trade is going well.
ReplyWe think we are smart when we book the profit; market tells us we are not.
Cheers.
Badrinath January 27, 2019 at 7:55 am
Did we take Ashokleyland and Maruti sir?
Replyadmin January 27, 2019 at 8:15 am
Some of the readers had taken trades in ASHOKLEY and MARUTI when these trades were considered. We did not count them as the buy price mentioned was not possible on that day.
ReplySenthilnathan January 25, 2019 at 2:04 pm
Pramod ji,
ReplyI took a calculated risk by buying ZEEL 410 PE at 7.70 and waiting for selling ZEEL 420 PE..
Sold 420 PE at 39.00
Holding 410 PE ..
Thanks to the market for rewarding..
Senthilnathan January 25, 2019 at 2:06 pm
Next on the way to reward us seems to be RELINFRA
ReplyThanks Pramod ji for your valuable method.
Jay January 25, 2019 at 2:19 pm
ZEEL made it all.
I had 2 lots 420 pe brought at 7 rupees and covered it at 85 rupees.
Thanks Pramod ji
Replyviki January 25, 2019 at 2:32 pm
Pramod Ji,
Booked more than 1lakh in zeel trade. So far, almost 1.75lakh profit booked for this month.
ReplyOnce again thank you so much for your guidance and teaching.
MR January 25, 2019 at 2:44 pm
Zeel and maruti heavy heavy crash.. enjoy
ReplyJayesh January 25, 2019 at 3:24 pm
congratulations sir, I am not trading since last 3-4 months due to back to back losses but it is good to see chart turning into decent profit especially near expiry days where time decay is very fast. Again sticking to the method and holding with patience worked.
ReplyTharik January 25, 2019 at 3:41 pm
ZEEL was unbelievable today. My streak of missing good trade continues as always 😉 We missed Maruti and AshokLeyland too.
ReplyAnyways, happy to hear that many of us (option buyers) here made good money.
Congrats to all who booked good profits with patience in ZEEL.
vishal agarwal January 25, 2019 at 4:03 pm
Want to highlight Zeel 420 PE was at 0.7 at one point on the day of results announcement when it went to 475. PE going from 0.7 to 100 is unbelievable.
ReplySaket January 25, 2019 at 3:52 pm
This month I couldn’t enter many of the good trades being discussed on the blog. But I was fortunate enough to get into ZEEL 420PE @4.7 and squared off at 37.55 I know it is nothing compared to the day’s high of around 120. But I am happy with the profit. Will try to move to lower PE next week if conditions are favourable. Thanks Pramod-ji for your simple and powerful technique !
ReplyRavi kumar January 25, 2019 at 3:56 pm
Your bearishness on Auto sector was so right….all Auto companies in Deep Red
ReplySenthilnathan January 25, 2019 at 4:01 pm
Pramod ji,
ReplyThis month is going to be one of the best for those who is disciplined in following your method of option trading.
Thanks for all your guidance.
Personally, as I am out of station, I could not follow exactly the kind of patience I would have planned to keep after attending the workshop at Mumbai.
I am very happy that the trade identified at our Mumbai workshop turned to be a great winner.
Of course I could not collect fully what the market was rewarding, but still glad that I could book profits in many trades.
When I bought ZEEL 410 put at 7.70 today and waited for booking profit in 420 Put, it was a moment of testing my conviction. I booked early the profit in 420 Put at 39.00 (Gross under estimate of the reward the market was willing to give ! )
And what a move by ZEEL today !
Honestly I could not resist myself in booking the profit appearing in front of the eyes.
Waiting with patience up to this level itself is a great achievement for me !
Booked profit in 410 Put also at 99.70
Very glad to get this trade..Grateful to the market..Thankful to you, Sir.
Hope many traders following your method may be now laughing on their way to bank, being grateful and thankful, sure.
Saket January 25, 2019 at 5:19 pm
Very good trades, buddy! Congratulations!
Replyadmin January 25, 2019 at 8:31 pm
Congratulations on a good trade. We can try to control the emotions but it is not easy.
Cheers.
ReplyMahesh Shastri January 25, 2019 at 4:07 pm
The system works and buying of options is profitable and thanks Pramod sir, however I still need to learn to control my fear and hold on to winners as I exited Zee with 10 times profit instead of 50 times had I sold by end of the day.
ReplyAnand January 25, 2019 at 4:56 pm
We (group of friends) closed ZEEL at 15 and HEROMOTO at 70 🙁
Two mistakes were committed today
1) After seeing SUNPHARMA move from 0.5 to 24 to 1 again, we carried that emotion and didnt want to land in same situation with ZEEL. So closed it when it was more than 3x. But market had plans to give more than 25x
2) Did not move to next PE which was one of the ways Pramod Sir asked to save the profit. It seemed like why to put extra amount from profit and then stock reverses.
Overcoming #1 is a difficult thing but at least #2 we will definitely correct from next time. Thanks anyways to market and Pramod sir.
Replyvishal agarwal January 25, 2019 at 8:11 pm
I face the same dilema. But yes #2 is the optimal solution to deal with uncertainity
Replyankit singh bhatia January 25, 2019 at 6:31 pm
pramod sir what are you views about making watsapp group for your well wishers .
ReplyAs watsapp is much more convenient for each and every one .
Nilesh S January 25, 2019 at 8:32 pm
Pramod ji, your method rocks
ReplyZeel put from 0.7 to 125 is unbelievable but that will be possible only if you keep patience and don’t worry about your trades which are in loss as market can turnaround your lost trade in big winner anytime..
Great lesson with perfect Zeel example…
Badrinath January 27, 2019 at 8:16 am
I bought zeel at 4. when it rises to 10. i thought of closing it, but i missed that.. From wednesday it again came down to 2.5, i dont want to wait to book in loss, so thought of selling at 8 and booked it. it happened when i was travelling. after i booked it keeps on moving till 130. i missed the bus. missed an opportunity. anyway happy what i got.
Reply