On Friday, US markets closed higher.
SGX NIFTY is up by 68 points at 7 am today indicating a strong opening for our markets. Nowadays SGX NIFTY has actually stopped being a good indicator. By 9 am the status may be different.
But this strong opening does not bode well for our 7 PUT trades. As it is Friday moves had spoiled some of the good trades. Another day of up moves will cause a major loss.
We may have to tough it out for few more days. Each day costs some time decay. To make up for that we shall need a volatile move in our direction soon.
Adding a new trade to a list which is already under some stress is not an easy job.
But looking for opportunities can not be stopped.
Let us have a look at UPL :
Over last 30 day period this stock is down by 9.47% while NIFTY is up by 1.69%.
This is weakness further confirmed by the fact that it made a 52 week low of Rs. 604.20 on June 28.
It is not showing strength over last one week of trading.
In technical parlance it can be said to be consolidating before it breaks out on a higher or lower sign. Considering the weakness exhibited in the last one month and the tepid performance over last few days, my expectation is that move will be towards the low.
And when it goes lower, it may breach the Rs. 600 level.
All these theories are just theories but we need some reasoning to support our trade and this is a good enough reason for me. Possibility of going wrong is always there with every trade. That should not stop us from making decisions.
PUT 600 closed at Rs. 8.85 on Friday.
With the market likely to open higher, there may be some up move initially. It would be alright to Buy this PUT in a range of Rs. 7 -8.
If it does not move up with rest of the market and remains at lower level, we may go up to Rs. 8.50 too.
Asian Markets :
As of 7:30 am this is how Asian Markets are performing:
Let us be ready for a real rough ride today.
Disclaimer: This post and examples are for teaching purpose only and are not meant as advice/suggestion to trade in these stocks. Trading in Futures and Options can lead to big losses and should be done with appropriate knowledge and advice only. Mentioning the stocks here does not imply that I have a trading position or likely to take a trade in these stocks.
Comments
Nathan July 9, 2018 at 11:41 am
Pramod ji,
ReplyAs the market opened higher, the UPL PUT 600 price is within our entry range !
And, even VEDL 220 PUT may once again give us an opportunity to enter. When you originally prescribed for entry at 4.50, the market has not provided us the opportunity.
Hope your F&O workshop at Hyderabad went off well.
admin July 9, 2018 at 11:54 am
UPL PUT 600 at around Rs. 8.00 is worth the risk.
VEDL too has enough volatility to swing our way. Still I will not be in too much of a hurry to get into VEDL right now.
ReplyNathan July 9, 2018 at 11:48 am
Even those who missed to enter RELCAPITAL PUT 360 earlier are having a chance to enter at a slightly lower price !
ReplyRANVIJAY CHOUDHARY July 9, 2018 at 11:06 pm
In hourly and Daily chart it seems RELCAPITAL is preparing for breakout. lets hope if tomorrow we will see any sign of downtrend.
ReplySandeep July 9, 2018 at 12:15 pm
UPL will show upside breakout. At least it will go up to 638/640. PUT should be exited .
Replyadmin July 9, 2018 at 3:34 pm
Thanks Sandeep for sharing your inputs. On the day when NIFTY went up 80 points, UPL did almost nothing. In my view weakness persists. Every one can have own views on the stock and can be right or wrong. This is the beauty of this game.
Replyadmin July 10, 2018 at 9:54 am
Dear Sandeep,
Your analysis went right today. As of now ( at 9:52 am ) , UPL has made the day’s high of 641. It was subdued yesterday but today it gained very nicely. We win some, we lose some.
Cheers.
Replyadmin July 11, 2018 at 3:49 pm
Dear Sandeep,
UPL first followed what you stated. Then it did what I wished it should be doing. Exiting the PUT would have made the trade futile as generally one does not enter the same trade again.
ReplyThe point is that all the charts and indicators can go wrong. In that case it pays to keep our analysis simple.
For the record UPL made new 52 week low at Rs. 598.05 and the PUT 600 traded at a high of Rs. 19.35 today. ( July 11, 2018 )
Cheers.
Krishna July 9, 2018 at 9:07 pm
Which way ICICI Bank & PNB are headed ?
ReplyIs there any short term positive or negative to PNB stock . I have put positions in above two plus idea .
admin July 9, 2018 at 9:24 pm
Dear Krishna,
In this expiry 7 days have gone out of 20. ICICI Bank is at same price level when the trade was entered whereas PNB has gone up. Out of these two, ICICI is presently directionless. In a strong market it could not move up. There is a good chance that it may move down when correction occurs. PNB is so volatile that it can move from 78 to 72 on same day like it did on June 28. IDEA is similar.
Just because you and I hold PUT options these stocks will not move down. They will do so in their own time. we want that to be soon. As long price does not move too far away from the Strike Price, let us keep the faith.
Cheers.
ReplyKrishna July 9, 2018 at 11:22 pm
Thank you sir, appreciate the guidance & reply. Holding on with the same view. I am newbie to equity & markets. Trying to learn, have been following you on quora for the last 3 months. Your simple way in treading the market.
Thank you
ReplyKrishna July 9, 2018 at 10:39 pm
Thank you sir,
ReplyI am also thinking on somewhat same pattern. Appreciate the reply, I have interest in equity & market but a newbie . Following your answers on quora last 2-3 month. Like the straight talk & view.
Mahesh July 9, 2018 at 11:00 pm
In strong market hindalco show ing weakness, 200 put ? Can we buy.
ReplyDev July 28, 2018 at 12:18 pm
sir, UPL is still looking weak, (technically refering daily chart with moving avg.) I think it will again consolidate.. and I find the TATA MOTORS in the range of reversal as in 2016 it reversed two times near these lavels?
ReplyDev July 28, 2018 at 1:47 pm
sorry ,that comment was for the latest post on 27july.
Reply