Up, up and away.
That is how the markets were yesterday. A gain of 94 points over a gain of 80 points on Monday. This makes it 174 points in two days.
Not a good news for our PUT trades and we have 8 of those.
On June Expiry day, NIFTY had closed at 10589. It has moved up by over 350 points in just 8 trading days.
Already experts have started singing about the new highs. They may be right.
But last time NIFTY was about 11100, BHARTIAIRTEL was above Rs. 500 and TATAMOTORS was around Rs. 450. I do not think with NIFTY gaining another 150 points, these two are going to be anywhere near those levels.
New highs or consolidation, what matters for us is our trades which unfortunately have gone wrong this time.
They had gone wrong similarly last month too. In the last week before expiry in June, they started becoming right and ended up profitable.
Option Buyers worst outcome— You can lose the entire premium. If that happens, we have next month’s trades. Nobody ever said that one has to make money every month or in every trade.
It is not to sound pessimistic, but to add a dosage of reality to the narrative.
Markets Next Move :
I am reproducing some of the points made at Moneycontrol website about the current and Future NIFTY moves.
After a rangebound trade for around two months, the strong breakout indicated that the Nifty could be heading towards its earlier all-time highs of 11,171 touched on January 29, experts said.
According to Pivot charts, the key support level is placed at 10,896.97, followed by 10,846.73. If the index starts moving upwards, key resistance levels to watch out are 10,977.17 and 11,007.13.
Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Senior Technical Analyst, Sharekhan said the index also managed to surpass 78.6 percent retracement of the fall from 11,171 to 9,951 on closing basis. “The key Fibonacci level was placed at 10,910. Thus the bulls seem to be pushing the index for higher levels.”
He said the daily upper Bollinger Band that had become flat over last several sessions has now started expansion along with the price action. “Hence the index now looks set to test its weekly upper Bollinger Band, which is close to 11,100. On the other hand, the level of 10,800 shall act as a crucial support.”
Well, the Fibonacci Levels, Bollinger Band and Pivot Charts all are telling that NIFTY is headed towards the previous high of 11171.
We shall find out soon.
Participation by the readers :
Recently the number and the quality of the Comments has improved significantly. More readers are expressing themselves and interacting through these comments. Please keep doing that. Talking about trades helps us in becoming better trades as mostly we do not find people for sharing our trades.
Our Trades :
We actually do not need a chart to tell us that we are in a bad shape.
Till July 09, we had a loss of Rs. 22528 on a total trade value of Rs. 75135 + 9600 = Rs. 84735. ( Rs. 9600 for UPL PUT 600 ).
On July 10, this loss further increased significantly, the big losers for us being UPL and BHARTI.
Again, I am taking no further trades for the day and just be watchful for the day.
One reader has suggested why I do not buy some CALLS. I can surely do that but first I have to get my conviction about the trade. Let us watch how the day goes by. There are still 11 days of trade left in this month and a lot can happen in this time as we found out last month.
Trade cautiously, trade profitably.
Disclaimer: This post and examples are for teaching purpose only and are not meant as advice/suggestion to trade in these stocks. Trading in Futures and Options can lead to big losses and should be done with appropriate knowledge and advice only. Mentioning the stocks here does not imply that I have a trading position or likely to take a trade in these stocks.