NIFTY crossed 11000 yesterday.
During the day it made a high of 11078.30 and came down in the last two hours of trading.
The gain was based mainly on RELIANCE making the all time high.
SENSEX made the all time high.
But do we get carried away with the rise in Indices. There is no reason to do that.
Even on a strong day like yesterday, there were 22 losers and 28 gainers. At 10:00 am the position was 8 losers and 42 gainers. We see that 14 NIFTY stocks went from a gainer to loser position on the day the SENSEX made a record high.
I just looked at the data on NSE website about the NIFTY 50 and this fact emerges:
Over last 365 days, NIFTY has gained 12.64%.
In this period 26 stocks are losers and 24 are gainers.
Losers are more in number in spite of the 12.64% gain in NIFTY. This tells us that only few heavy weight stocks are moving the index but in general the market health is not good. There is a lot of weakness in this deceptively strong market.
Moneycontrol has presented another interesting viewpoint.
NIFTY had closed at 11027 on January 31, 2018.
We are almost at same position now.
NIFTY remaining where it was, there are 31 losers and 19 gainers.
You can read it here:
This further affirms my theory that it is really not a strong market.
How the day went for us ? :
US markets being down the previous day did not mean two hoots for NIFTY. Like mentioned earlier, it went close to the previous highs.
Such a day should have been a disaster.
But the inherent weakness ( not visible to the experts on business channels ) saw to it that we came out better at the end of day.
Just 2 days ago, we were looking at a notional loss of about Rs. 42000. NIFTY has gone up by 73 points in these two days. With 8 PUT trades in position, we are back into profitable position. Strange, but fortunately true.
Again it was due to UPL stock making the new 52 week low, now falling to Rs. 577.65 during the trades. PUT 600 made a high of Rs. 32.50 and is mainly instrumental in bringing our positions back into the green.
BHEL too went down nicely and is once again marginally in profit.
RELCAPITAL went up initially to Rs. 390 and then moved down very nicely to Rs. 372 levels before close.
BHARTI stayed near Rs. 362.
Bank Nifty was up, so were banking stocks. Our 3 PUTS in banking stocks did not do well but it was more than made up by the gains in UPL, BHEL and RELCAPITAL.
Let us look at a slightly better picture :
Some peace of mind.
My only concern is that profit or loss can be real quick in option trades. We do not mind the profit part but loss is an altogether different issue. If it happens after seeing the profit, it is more distressing.
Stay alert and book the profits in UPL if it reverses. We shall wait and watch if the stock keeps on falling further, but if it moves up and PUT 600 goes down, we exit at around Rs. 25-26.
The stock is highly volatile. If it can go down so much in two days, it can do a similar reversal as well. It is by way of being cautious. I personally expect it to move down a little more.
With US market positive overnight and Asia also in the green this morning, we may see some positive move in NIFTY in the early trades.
But when does NIFTY do what we want?
As long as our selections are doing what we expect them to do, I do not mind NIFTY going up a few points. After all TV channels need something to keep talking about.
Any New Trades :
Metals sector is not doing well. I had tried to include VEDL in my list but the preferred price did not come about. In fact the price range occurred few days later and some of the readers have taken the trade as I could see from the comments. Good for them.
I am looking at HINDALCO this time.
PUT 210 was at Rs. 2.90 at close yesterday.
With a lot size of 3500, maximum risk is about Rs. 10000. With 10 days remaining to expiry and market having run up 450 points since June Expiry, we may see some down move.
PUT 210 HINDALCO in the range Rs. 2.60-3.00 looks like a good OPTION to buy.
Let us see how the day pans out.
Trade cautiously, trade profitably.
Disclaimer: This post and examples are for teaching purpose only and are not meant as advice/suggestion to trade in these stocks. Trading in Futures and Options can lead to big losses and should be done with appropriate knowledge and advice only. Mentioning the stocks here does not imply that I have a trading position or likely to take a trade in these stocks.
Comments
Anand Kumar July 13, 2018 at 8:35 am
Sir,
You don’t have any stop losses defined for the trades?
Replyadmin July 13, 2018 at 9:11 am
If you are reading my earlier posts you would have known the answer. The premium paid is the stop loss. I do not take small profits and do not suggest salvaging small amount from the premium paid.
ReplyCheers.
Tarun July 13, 2018 at 8:47 am
Any reason you didn’t suggest moving to Lower strike after exiting UPL?
Replyadmin July 13, 2018 at 9:08 am
Premiums are very high for the lower strikes. Already stock has moved down from 640 to 578 in two days. If one bought at 8.00 and sold at 30.00, profit from PUT 600 would be Rs. 22.00. To give Rs. 20.00 for PUT 580 or Rs. 12.00 for PUT 560 is a big price to pay. That is why I have suggested to wait with the same strike for some more gains and to exit if it reverses.
ReplyCheers.
Venkat July 13, 2018 at 9:40 am
Surprisingly the strikes for the call premium have also gone up tremendously. Even a minor change in its trend will lead to huge long premium and steep drop in put premium.
ReplyNathan July 13, 2018 at 9:25 am
Good morning to all.
ReplyDISHTV PUT 70 looks attractive to me.
if we can get it at or below 1.00, maximum exposure is Rs.8,000/-, lot size being 8000.
admin July 13, 2018 at 12:24 pm
Thanks Nathan for sharing your views on DISHTV.
ReplyArun July 13, 2018 at 9:47 am
Sir, Do you have any target for UPL ? This trade is working wonders for us but when to book profits ?
Replyadmin July 13, 2018 at 12:24 pm
Replied in other comments.
ReplyAmit July 13, 2018 at 10:16 am
What’s is premium charge
Replyadmin July 13, 2018 at 12:23 pm
Dear Amit,
Please rephrase the question clearly.
thanks.
Replyvivek July 13, 2018 at 10:40 am
i Have been following you for a while now sir. Seems every time our trades on banks(especially SBI & PNB) are not following our takes. THough they are supposed to fall, I feel like they are being manipulated a lot compared to other sectors. Is it safe to avoid bank sector or its just seasonal and it could happen in any sector at an equal probability?
Replyadmin July 13, 2018 at 12:23 pm
Certainly some index management is always there. I am taking my chance with the banking stocks. Let us give it some more time.
ReplyCheers.
ARUNKUMAR S S July 13, 2018 at 11:09 am
Sir What is the target for UPL ? UPL trade is doing wonders for us. When should we book profit and exit ?
Replyadmin July 13, 2018 at 12:22 pm
After making a new low below Rs. 550 UPL has recovered to Rs. 557 level. We do not know what it will do now. Actually did not know earlier also. Something wrong with the stock which is making it go lower every day.
ReplyI do not give targets. we try to take what the market gives. But it is difficult to sit on a big profit. Wait for a while. Either go for Rs. 50 if PUT price is going up or exit at Rs. 42 if it is going wrong.
Cheers.
Chirag Patel July 13, 2018 at 5:20 pm
congrats Prince on the good trade and we are very thankful to Pramod sir for this ….lets hope other readers were able to make profit from it as well……
ReplyPrince Nahata July 13, 2018 at 12:02 pm
Exited UPL @47/- What a great call!!!
ReplyThanks Pramod Sir ( & Quora too Where we got to know & read Sir’s post)
admin July 13, 2018 at 12:16 pm
Congratulations on a good trade. Some luck and lot of patience does the trick. One could very well get out at Rs. 15/16 and think that we are smart only to repent later. My few other followers got out at rs. 51.00.
ReplyCheers
Madan Mohan July 13, 2018 at 12:43 pm
Dear Sir, I am still in UPL.. want to hold for some more time
Replyadmin July 13, 2018 at 1:27 pm
All the best.
Remember my Jet Airways trade of few years ago. I got out at 39 and it moved to 100 next day. Another time it was 46 and I was expecting a similar move. It came back to 18 next day and to Rs. 12 a day later.
It works both ways.
Be cautious and be hopeful.
ReplySaket July 13, 2018 at 7:44 pm
I exited UPL yesterday at 29 thinking that 3.5x profit is good enough. And I was right! It was just “good enough”; not better or best 🙂 That’s the life…
Replyadmin July 13, 2018 at 8:44 pm
Well, you are still a winner. What can be learnt from this experience is that we really do not know what the market has in store for us. It is better to expect good things and wait for them.
ReplyCheers.
Srikanth July 13, 2018 at 3:01 pm
I have entered PNB 70PE at 0.75.
ReplyI saw it moving only in the range of 71-78 for the last 2 weeks. Can we add few more lots as the stock is moving low today and can break the 71 level in the coming week ?
Jatin July 13, 2018 at 4:35 pm
Pramod Sir..I have one question when do we decide to move on to the next strike price.Is there any percentage for the stock price or would it depend on the premium of the option.
On the other note,Sir whatever you call this strategy of yours it works wonderfully (on any stock of the option buyer) its just we need to have patience to sit very very tight.
ReplyChandra July 13, 2018 at 7:12 pm
Dear Sir,
ReplyI have booked profit UPL600PE @39 and entered UPL560PE @14, is my trade correct?
admin July 13, 2018 at 8:42 pm
This is a way to stay in the trade if the trend continues. But be on the alert all time now as the stock is volatile and bottom fishing can make it go up slightly. It recovered very sharply at the end today.
ReplyAll the best.
PRAKHAR MAHESHWARI July 13, 2018 at 8:42 pm
Sir, Ncc is in a constant downtrend, shouldn’t we look over it for big gains.
ReplyArun July 13, 2018 at 9:09 pm
Thank you so much Sir for giving a target for UPL I exited at 45 Rs. Awesome call!!!
Replyadmin July 14, 2018 at 3:07 pm
Congratulations on a good trade. Let us hope other trade too do well.
ReplyCheers.
Rakesh Varma July 14, 2018 at 8:26 am
Pramod Sir,
How do u decide the price range to buy the option.
ReplyLike HINDALCO PE 210 between 2.6 to 3.