Yesterday ( July 18 ) Sensex made a new lifetime high.
NIFTY too moved up in the early trades. Went up to 11078 and then moved down. We read the views of experts and listen to them everyday as to where the market is headed. Market can and does make a fool of all of us all the time.
Well, talk is talk and facts are facts. Talk does not make money so we can very well ignore all of it. Including what I talk here.
Let us look at the facts.
NIFTY is again below 11000. So what ?
It is still 391 points higher than where it was on June Expiry. For our PUTS to come good we wanted NIFTY to move down. That has not happened.
Fortunately our stocks belonged to a group which was waiting to go down no matter what NIFTY did. Their weakness really worked wonders for us so far.
This is what NIFTY did during the day.
After 71 points gain on Tuesday, it was partial relief for us. The trades that had gone wrong on Tuesday did better yesterday.
BHARTI AIRTEL : It did not collapse 5-6% in a day as I had wished for. But continuous decline over few days led to making 52 week lows on daily basis. On Monday it was Rs. 344.80, on Tuesday the low was Rs. 340 and yesterday the low was Rs. 331 though it recovered from this level. PUT 360 is now deep in the money and we need to nurse this trade carefully.
TATAMOTORS : Did almost same thing as Bharti Airtel . Made the latest 52 week low of Rs. 247.30 and then moved up to Rs. 251.85. Another day, another low. Possible ? Let us see. We are happy if that happens.
UPL : It did what we wanted. Opened higher, made a move to go down, we could buy our PUT 560 at our price ( Rs. 10.00 ) and then it went up to Rs. 551.40. It was within touching distance of the 52 week low of Rs. 548.85 but recovered. The trade was right.
HINDALCO, ICICIBANK, PNB did better than yesterday. SBIN went lower initially but closed higher. This is one option which closed lower than yesterday. We can not win them all.
This is the chart of Options Positions at the end of day.
A good looking picture again.
Every day is different. A trader can not sit on the past glory. Trading is about the present and future. Past is done and dusted. One bad market move and one has to run for cover. Let us stay alert like we were in BHEL and RELCAPITAL . By the way those PUTS also recovered.
Readers Comments :
It is nice to know that the readers are doing good trades. It is further nice that they are sharing that information. Also they are taking trades which are not mentioned here. that means their own selections and analysis is working. Please keep sharing.
New Trades :
Pharma Sector did extremely well in the beginning of the month. Now it is giving away the gains.
LUPIN is apparently week. PUT 780 opened at Rs. 3.95 , made a high of Rs. 10.50 and closed almost in the middle at Rs. 6.20.
Stock price closed at Rs. 811.
The 780 strike is just 3.5% away and a good down move can bring this Option in the money soon. We have got 6 days for the trade to work out.
Risk in the trade is only about Rs. 4340.
If the stock opens higher it may be possible to get it for Rs. 5.00 -6.00.
Trade cautiously, trade profitably. Protect your profits and stay alert for sudden adverse moves.
Disclaimer: This post and examples are for teaching purpose only and are not meant as advice/suggestion to trade in these stocks. Trading in Futures and Options can lead to big losses and should be done with appropriate knowledge and advice only. Mentioning the stocks here does not imply that I have a trading position or likely to take a trade in these stocks.
Sandeep Kharat July 19, 2018 at 9:48 am
Entered Nifty July exp 10900 PUT deducing Nifty trend reversal after today afternoon . My calculated Nifty Target is 10600 approximately.Reply
Sandeep Kharat July 19, 2018 at 9:49 am
My NIFTY 10900 PUT price is 51.60 Rs.Reply
Aditya Singh July 19, 2018 at 11:19 am
Sir, is lupin 780 PE still a buy?Reply
admin July 19, 2018 at 12:00 pm
Now the price is near Rs. 8.00.
Still worth a risk. We are looking for a 5-8% decline over next 2-3 sessions. If that happens we make good money. In case it does not happen we lose a maximum of Rs. 5600. It is a calculated risk. I have entered at Rs. 7.00.Reply
Jayesh July 19, 2018 at 12:26 pm
I see bearish divergence on nifty chart. Lets hope market and our selected stocks falls.Reply
Nilesh S July 19, 2018 at 1:11 pm
It was very difficult to stay in HINDALCO trade with notional profit of 30k + and keep patience. Finally exited at Rs. 13Reply
admin July 19, 2018 at 1:20 pm
With PSU banks going wrong again we needed some PUT to pay out. HINDALCO did it for us. Again selection process worked.
Congratulations on a very good trade. Exiting at the high price of the day is no small achievement.
Nilesh S July 19, 2018 at 1:15 pm
HINDALCO was a great call. Hats off to your conviction.Reply
Alok July 19, 2018 at 1:41 pm
I also excited at 13 thanks Pramod sirReply
admin July 19, 2018 at 1:47 pm
Congratulations on a good trade.
Finally I too got out at Rs. 14.70. Mu buying was at Rs. 2.10. It was a random thought to get out at a multiple of 7. Immediately it traded at Rs. 15.15 after that. Let us be content with what we get.
Prince Nahata July 19, 2018 at 1:54 pm
I got ₹16.20Reply
Prince Nahata July 19, 2018 at 1:53 pm
Yesterday it was Bharti today Hindalco.Reply
Sir I think you should start charging premium for giving all calls.
Saket July 19, 2018 at 1:55 pm
Exited Hindalco at 16.1. What a great call! Thank you Pramod-ji.Reply
Arun July 19, 2018 at 1:55 pm
I exited hindalco at 16. Brilliant call sir.Reply
Ashish Agrawal July 19, 2018 at 2:02 pm
Sir, I made the mistake of exiting HINDALCO 210 PE very early at around 5. Now it has reached 17 levels. Do you still see this trade as going down further ? Should I enter 190 PE or 200 PE?Reply
admin July 19, 2018 at 2:10 pm
It happens with all of us. No regrets. The way it was moving initially anyone would have done that. Too much TV and the talk of stop loss there is the reason for it. If bought for Rs. 2.60 the maximum loss in case of going wrong can not exceed Rs. 9100. By focussing on small profit or salvaging something we miss whan the market is generous.
Sometimes we win, other times we learn.
About taking another trade no views at this time.
Jayesh July 19, 2018 at 2:09 pm
I got out around 14. Another great selection by you. Thank you very much for guidance.Reply
admin July 19, 2018 at 2:26 pm
Congratulations on a good trade.Reply
Mahesh July 19, 2018 at 3:06 pm
Looks like sir is bullish. Thank you for lupin.Reply
admin July 19, 2018 at 3:33 pm
How do I appear bullish ? With so many PUTS how this conclusion could be derived?
Lupin made a strong down move but recovered equally smartly. Let us see how it goes tomorrow.Reply
Nathan July 19, 2018 at 3:53 pm
Great Calls ( I mean PUTs ), Pramod ji.Reply
And thanks for the Quote of the day:
Sometimes we win, other times we learn.
Jatin July 19, 2018 at 6:20 pm
Pramod Sir I haven’t followed your calls but have traded on my own with your method and they have turned out good though not as spectacular as UPL or Hindalco
I had bought a Britannia 6400 CE, DLF 180 PE & POWERGRID 182.5 PE at the start of the month.Currently I’m holding on to POWERGRID.
They say “Give a man a fish aand you feed him for one day and you teach him how to fish you feed him for the lifetime” and I see that you have taught one too many the same.
Thanks again for your teaching.Reply
admin July 19, 2018 at 6:32 pm
Good to know that you are doing well. An option gives spectacular profit not because of anything we do but because of market action. A day earlier also HINDALCO 210 PUT had gone up to Rs. 6.75. At that time too it was a good trade. today the weakness which we observed a bit earlier was open for all and the stocked tanked 7%. It is fortunate that we had not exited earlier. Rewards of patience.
Powergrid was on my radar too. But you can not take every trade and I go for higher volatility.
Reshmi P R July 19, 2018 at 8:41 pm
I follow your calls. My profit booking strategy is when the profit crosses around 10k-15k, I book it and go for a lower options trade on the stock. I would like to know if it’s the right strategy to proceed.
admin July 19, 2018 at 9:18 pm
If it is working it is the right way.Reply
Tharik July 19, 2018 at 9:09 pm
I had got out at 14 Rs in Hindalco 210 PE sir.. I exited mainly due to the large spreads between the available buy price and sell price. Is it still worth a trade to continue with lower strike PUT?Reply
When I closed my position, the 190 PE was trading at around 5 Rs and I thought it’s too much risk to take for a last week of expiry. Ur comments will be really helpful Sir.
admin July 19, 2018 at 9:17 pm
You exited at a very good price. No one knows what would happen next. I agree that the premium for 190 put is very high.Reply
I am not buying it now. It is not necessary to be in trade all the time.
Tharik July 19, 2018 at 9:32 pm
Thanks a lot sir 🙂 Today was the day I felt that I don’t need to be in trade always .. Ur selection worked wonderfully, which makes us to feel that we can wait for a good trade, however longer it takes…Thanks againReply