Out of 29 trading days, 14 are gone.
We are nowhere near profits. On the other hand there is a big loss staring us in the face and let us face the fact that some of the options have gone wrong badly.
When do we say a trade in options has gone really bad.
In my view it is that trade where both the price and time decay have damaged the trade.
In our list, the prime examples of this are — KPIT Call 320.
For becoming ITM, the stock needs to gain more than 15% over next 4-5 days. Not impossible, but not likely either. I would happily forego the remaining Rs. 0.20 value in this trade in exchange for some PUT coming into the money nicely. Taking back Rs. 900 is not going to make us very rich. It is now a take it or leave it case.
BANKNIFTY would also come into this category. But here we need only 600 point move which is less than 3% of the Index. It is known to show this kind of volatility. So we stay in the trade with a hope and a prayer.
BHEL and IDEA are at the cusp. They can make or break. These are the real cliffhangers and right now we are looking at the beautiful scenery on the other side whereas the pit on this side could be very deep.
But who said making money did not involve some tension?
INDUSINDBK also recovered very smartly today and now sits at the same perch with the above two.
UPL has proved our star performer and if it continues to perform like this, I would suggest getting out at Rs. 20 and buying 640 PUT. If it is going to really crash, it will go below 640 also. If it does what BHEL did last month, we shall be left licking our wounds. Time to cash in and reduce the risk.
Now we have the real problems — PNB, SBIN, BHARTIAIRTEL, RELCAPITAL .
They have actually not gone very far away price wise. Here time has killed the option price.
But these stocks have good volatility and if that comes into play in the right direction over next 4-5 trading days, at least 2 out of 4 trades can become good.
Does it happen this way?
With me it has happened quite a few times. But there are times when the market just keeps playing with your hope and fear.
With NIFTY going up today, we were bound to be in negative. Still some face saving was done by INDUSINDBK and UPL.
Here is the chart:
The prices moving in favor or away can be seen from the Futures Positions Chart. If the same trades were initiated in Futures, it would have looked very nice.
We are still in with a chance where the price is around the point when the option trade was considered for entering.
For Day 15, we do nothing and see if the trades go along expected lines as mentioned in so many words above.
Disclaimer: This post and examples are for teaching purpose only and are not meant as advice/suggestion to trade in these stocks. Trading in Futures and Options can lead to big losses and should be done with appropriate knowledge and advice only. Mentioning the stocks here does not imply that I have a trading position or likely to take a trade in these stocks.
Jayesh June 21, 2018 at 10:37 am
Sir I’m trying to paper trade a following strategy for next expiry let me know your opinion;Reply
If I buy the put of fundamentally weak stock which has gone up in past few days and buy the call for strong stock which has gone down in past few days.
Madan Mohan June 21, 2018 at 5:03 pm
DearJayesh, I am taking your permission and answering this. There is a lot of difference between paper trading and real trading. Paper trading is like trying to learn swimming without entering into the water. To learn any trading / activity in life you should involve both mentally and physically (Health is very important for any successful trader). You will not involve mentally and physically more intently, if there is no finance involved. otherwise you will not gain knowledge. Rather you should observe the movement of each scrip you are interested in every day as a day-end process, as I am doing the same now a days.
Talking about my trades, I recently started trading and that too in options. Since my college days, I have been told not to do trading in equity, trading is a self suiciding equipment, as said by Warren Buffett. Through out my investment career, I have been trained and educated to do value investment only. Due to loss of huge capital in mid and small cap in recent times, my investments have halved in value. I decided to start doing Options trading with limited capital investment. But as usual, it is easy for me to go into overtrading. I should strictly follow my own rules. The strategy mentioned by you does not make money. Thanks and all the best in your future endeavours.Reply
Jayesh June 21, 2018 at 5:59 pm
I got your point but due to limited resources, I have no other option.Reply
admin June 21, 2018 at 5:13 pm
Paper trades are not a great way to learn. Anyway, go ahead and let us see the results after a month. What I have seen is that any method of stock selection works fine, only the trader is not able to stay in a winning trade to take the benefit.Reply
Jayesh June 21, 2018 at 5:50 pm
Hi sir, I just started trading stock option with June month only with your guidance and I’m still holding all the above position and also would be looking for July month under your guidance. since the resource is limited it will be difficult to trade with actual money so I just want to try and test on paper for learning purpose.Reply
Mahesh June 21, 2018 at 6:12 pm
Idea stock falling, put 60 also falling. don’t see any volumes in nifty puts.. Should we hold or exit?Reply