The NIFTY juggernaut moves on with determined strides. On Friday, it kept the momentum and ended up higher by 83 points.
It is now 340 points short of the all time high. Whether the current momentum will take it across that number or will there be a pause and correction is the main question now.
I do not like to play spoil sport for the bulls ( it serves no purpose as it makes no money for me ) but the rally is once again lopsided. NIFTY has gained 9.76% over the 365 day period, but 30 out of 50 stocks are losers over the same period. The strength is confined to few select scrips. The current rally is on the back of stocks which were beaten down over last few months. It may sustain or fizzle out. These stocks had moved down due to some reasons and it is nobody’s case that those reasons have gone away. We are in for volatile times in the market and a reversal of the current trade may not be far away.
Well, that was about market in general. Let us get back to our sorry situation.
On Friday, when everything was moving up, YESBANK did what it does. It moved down. The hope it gave over last two days vanished at least for the present.
INFY moved up and so did BIOCON and DRREDDY. Only HEROMOTOCO sustained its down move even in a high market.
All these moves added to our loss and once again we are looking at a loss of nearly 50%.
Difficult situations are normal for a trader and we just have to bear with it. We have 8 days to go and a lot can happen in these 8 days.
No new trades for today. Let us be watchful with the current trades.
Trade cautiously, trade profitably.
Disclaimer: This post and examples are for teaching purpose only and are not meant as advice/suggestion to trade in these stocks. Trading in Futures and Options can lead to big losses and should be done with appropriate knowledge and advice only. Mentioning the stocks here does not imply that I have a trading position or likely to take a trade in these stocks.
Comments
vivek March 18, 2019 at 10:09 am
Sir, you mention above that “The strength is confined to few select scrips. The current rally is on the back of stocks which were beaten down over last few months. It may sustain or fizzle out.”
but when i look at the top 10 nifty stocks by market cap, i see this
Stock
HDFC Bank 10.4%
Reliance 9.9%
HDFC 8.2%
Infosys -1.6%
ITC 6.6%
TCS 3.5%
ICICI 13.7%
Kotak mahindra 11.6%
LT 9.2%
HUL -1.5%
Nifty 7.0%
This rally is definitely pushed by the large caps unlike previous rallies by the small ones. you still think this rally wont be sustained?
Replyadmin March 18, 2019 at 10:33 am
I agree with your observation. But look at other gainers:
( As of 10:30 am today )
Yesbank 44.17%
Hindpetro 24.97%
IOC 24.21%
NTPC 22.27%
BPCL 22.07
TATAMOTORS 18.94
Gains in these stocks are far bigger.
Anyway it is early days yet to figure out which way we go from here.
Cheers.
Replyvishal agarwal March 18, 2019 at 3:54 pm
Sir can you please write an elaborate post on how you perform this analysis based on your experience. Also how does this analysis help us in our stock and trade slelection process.
ReplyRaveendran K A March 18, 2019 at 1:41 pm
Heromotoco down 2% … figures in the top losers list.
Replyvishal agarwal March 18, 2019 at 3:48 pm
We really need stock to crash at least 10% quickly. Somehow looks least possible as of now. Wish I am proved wrong.
ReplyNalin Mathur March 18, 2019 at 10:12 pm
Sir,
Wipro has fallen 31% in the last 3 days and in the last 7 days 1-2%.
Currently trading at 257.
IV of PE 255 is 28.50
As per the analysis, is it a good buy for put?
Replyvishal agarwal March 19, 2019 at 8:26 am
Sir Maruti is weak on 30days and 7 days basis. IV close to 30. Can consider 6700 Put.
Reply