- I am back after a break.
The last post was written on May 11.
A lot has happened since then. I am currently in Germany and am getting up very early in the morning to be with the trades.
Luckily things have gone well over the last week.
We had Karnataka Elections and the results. A government formation and a farcical vote of confidence. For once, BJP did not get what it wanted. Markets over the week mirrored that uncertainty.
Our Selections :
Let us review our first set of selections made on April 26, 2018.
The Buy Selections were Hindustan Unilever and M&M.
Hindustan Lever has gone on to make new highs in a market which has gone nowhere.
The Sell Selections were– Hindustan Petroleum, Tata Motors, State Bank of India and BHEL.
Out of ths 4, two have made new 52 week lows on Friday, May 18.
One could not ask for a better result from the markets.
The trades in Futures would have resulted in this situation:
Buy Trades — 1 Right 1 Wrong Profit — Rs. 47160
Sell Trades — 2 Right 2 Wrong Profit — Rs. 79702
Just 6 trades over a period of 3 weeks ( with half the trades going wrong ) , one could get a Mark to Market profit of more than Rs. 126000.
Like I always say, I will say once again it is not the number of trades which matters, what matters most is the profits from the successful trades. The above chart shows what could have been achieved just by being patient.
It did not require a great deal of skill or crystal glazing to arrive at these selections. All of us can do it ourselves without depending on any experts. I would suggest going back to previous posts to learn this simple method of selection.
Option Trades :
This month series was about how to trade these selections through Options.
I have advocated staying in good trades patiently while not bothering too much about those which have gone wrong.
This month this has worked out perfectly.
Let us look at the chart:
Just have a look at the great profits realized through Hindustan Lever, BHEL and Tata Motors.
This outperforms the losses in other trades.
A small layout of Rs. 52701 would have resulted in a profit of Rs. 77800.
Some of the readers have actually taken these trades but none of them has these profit figures. Reason is that they got out by booking small profits.
I know it is not easy to wait but one has to develop this quality to realize the full potential.
I myself had 2 Lots of BHEL 80 Put. While being optimistic all the time, I got out at Rs. 2.55 from 1 Lot and at Rs. 4.90 near close on Friday from the second one. My buying price was at Rs. 0.85 for each lot.
While apparently the profit booked is quite good, the stock can still move lower ( it touched the 52 week low of Rs. 76.00 on Friday ) and mock me afterwards.
But we are all humans and are governed by fear and greed. But patience certainly helps.
We had 3 other Option Trades suggested later.
UPL 680 PUT at Rs. 9.00. Current Price is Rs. 3.60. ( – 6480 )
HCC 15 PUT at Rs. 0,50 . Current Price is Rs. 0.30 ( – 3000 )
MARUTI 8600 PUT at Rs. 95.00 Current Price is Rs. 147. ( + 3900 )
Even with a small loss in these 3 trades combined, we are in a very comfortable position.
Next Week :
We now have 9 trading days till expiry of May 2018 Contracts.
These trades would need to be closed or profits locked.
Monday ( 21 May, 2018 ) is going to be interesting in view of the BJP’s failure to win the Vote of Confidence in Karnataka.
That may give a little more profit in the Puts.
Option Buyers do not get too many chances to make money ( that is what the experts have been telling us all the time) but when we get the chance it has to be utilized to the full.
New addition to the list :
Vedanta Ltd. ( VEDL ) is getting weaker by the day.
We can buy PUT 260 around Rs. 3.20 and hope for the stock to move lower towards 250 very soon and fast.
Either we make some good money or lose Rs. 3.20.
Disclaimer: This post and examples are for teaching purpose only and are not meant as advice/suggestion to trade in these stocks. Trading in Futures and Options can lead to big losses and should be done with appropriate knowledge and advice only. Mentioning the stocks here does not imply that I have a trading position or likely to take a trade in these stocks.