- I am back after a break.
The last post was written on May 11.
A lot has happened since then. I am currently in Germany and am getting up very early in the morning to be with the trades.
Luckily things have gone well over the last week.
We had Karnataka Elections and the results. A government formation and a farcical vote of confidence. For once, BJP did not get what it wanted. Markets over the week mirrored that uncertainty.
Our Selections :
Let us review our first set of selections made on April 26, 2018.
The Buy Selections were Hindustan Unilever and M&M.
Hindustan Lever has gone on to make new highs in a market which has gone nowhere.
The Sell Selections were– Hindustan Petroleum, Tata Motors, State Bank of India and BHEL.
Out of ths 4, two have made new 52 week lows on Friday, May 18.
One could not ask for a better result from the markets.
The trades in Futures would have resulted in this situation:
Buy Trades — 1 Right 1 Wrong Profit — Rs. 47160
Sell Trades — 2 Right 2 Wrong Profit — Rs. 79702
Just 6 trades over a period of 3 weeks ( with half the trades going wrong ) , one could get a Mark to Market profit of more than Rs. 126000.
Like I always say, I will say once again it is not the number of trades which matters, what matters most is the profits from the successful trades. The above chart shows what could have been achieved just by being patient.
It did not require a great deal of skill or crystal glazing to arrive at these selections. All of us can do it ourselves without depending on any experts. I would suggest going back to previous posts to learn this simple method of selection.
Option Trades :
This month series was about how to trade these selections through Options.
I have advocated staying in good trades patiently while not bothering too much about those which have gone wrong.
This month this has worked out perfectly.
Let us look at the chart:
Just have a look at the great profits realized through Hindustan Lever, BHEL and Tata Motors.
This outperforms the losses in other trades.
A small layout of Rs. 52701 would have resulted in a profit of Rs. 77800.
Some of the readers have actually taken these trades but none of them has these profit figures. Reason is that they got out by booking small profits.
I know it is not easy to wait but one has to develop this quality to realize the full potential.
I myself had 2 Lots of BHEL 80 Put. While being optimistic all the time, I got out at Rs. 2.55 from 1 Lot and at Rs. 4.90 near close on Friday from the second one. My buying price was at Rs. 0.85 for each lot.
While apparently the profit booked is quite good, the stock can still move lower ( it touched the 52 week low of Rs. 76.00 on Friday ) and mock me afterwards.
But we are all humans and are governed by fear and greed. But patience certainly helps.
We had 3 other Option Trades suggested later.
UPL 680 PUT at Rs. 9.00. Current Price is Rs. 3.60. ( – 6480 )
HCC 15 PUT at Rs. 0,50 . Current Price is Rs. 0.30 ( – 3000 )
MARUTI 8600 PUT at Rs. 95.00 Current Price is Rs. 147. ( + 3900 )
Even with a small loss in these 3 trades combined, we are in a very comfortable position.
Next Week :
We now have 9 trading days till expiry of May 2018 Contracts.
These trades would need to be closed or profits locked.
Monday ( 21 May, 2018 ) is going to be interesting in view of the BJP’s failure to win the Vote of Confidence in Karnataka.
That may give a little more profit in the Puts.
Option Buyers do not get too many chances to make money ( that is what the experts have been telling us all the time) but when we get the chance it has to be utilized to the full.
New addition to the list :
Vedanta Ltd. ( VEDL ) is getting weaker by the day.
We can buy PUT 260 around Rs. 3.20 and hope for the stock to move lower towards 250 very soon and fast.
Either we make some good money or lose Rs. 3.20.
Disclaimer: This post and examples are for teaching purpose only and are not meant as advice/suggestion to trade in these stocks. Trading in Futures and Options can lead to big losses and should be done with appropriate knowledge and advice only. Mentioning the stocks here does not imply that I have a trading position or likely to take a trade in these stocks.
Prince Nahata May 20, 2018 at 3:05 pm
Glad to know you are in best of health and spirits.Quite a few readers including myself were concerned as the blog wasn’t getting any updates since last 7-8 days.I was daily checking the blog and Quora.Reply
I can’t thank you enough for this selfless act of yours of teaching us novices.
admin May 20, 2018 at 3:34 pm
Thanks Prince. I hope your trades are doing well.Reply
Shankar May 20, 2018 at 3:25 pm
Welcome back! Could you share your thoughts on when to exit a profitable trade? Or do we just leave it to the markets? I was in a dilemma on two such trades and finally exited:
1. HDFCBANK 1920 CE (bought at 48 when SPOT was 1948): I waited and finally exited at 128 with SPOT 2049. Luckily this was correct for me.
2. ICICIBANK 290CE (bought at 11 when SPOT was 286): It more than doubled and then started falling, hit my trailing stop loss of 19.4 (SPOT: 306). I resisted the urge to book profits when it was above 25
Of course, your patience tips helped and these two covered up for my other loss making tradesReply
admin May 20, 2018 at 3:37 pm
I think you already know the answer. You did well in both the above trades. Patience gives you much more than the right selection.Reply
I will be writing on this point in subsequent posts.
Thanks for reading.
Ashish Agrawal May 21, 2018 at 9:28 am
Thank you for all the wonderful insights you have provided through your posts. Has been really helpful to learn and understand the markets, most importantly to keep patience and not panic.
Hopefully you will continue with Option trading in June as well. One more month of option trading and I think I should be ready. Once again, thank you very much.
admin May 31, 2018 at 6:43 pm
We shall continue with Options in June Expiry also. Please keep reading.Reply
Shashank May 21, 2018 at 2:48 pm
Firstly I would like to thank you for explaining choosing stocks in FnO in such a simple fashion.
I bought a put call of vedanta 260 at 2.45 expiry of 28th May. But as we were nearing expiry I exited at 5. Did I panick and do it or was my rationale right. Pls help me understand.
admin May 31, 2018 at 6:42 pm
I hope you found out whether you did it right or not.
Thanks for reading.Reply