Some people celebrate, some are always worrying.
Markets are at an all time high. Celebrations are due.
Nifty made a high of 18350.75 and looks likely to go past 18400 on Monday. Business channels are abuzz with numbers like 20000 by end of the year, 22500 by Diwali next year and what not.
All of us seen these kind of talks year after year. Sometime they prove right, at other times we see a complete reversal like we saw in March 2020.
There are no reasons for the market to go up. There are only explanations for it. Fuel prices are shooting up, Rupee is getting weaker against the Dollar, inflation is high. None of these are having an impact on the market.
But remember, market is always right. It is traders and investors who are wrong.
I do not share the euphoria of the new highs in the market.
But who cares for what I believe or what I think about the market?
Still, I am putting my thoughts here with my logic as to why we should be worrying about the new highs. If and when I am proved right, I would have earned the bragging rights. If not, it does not matter. I am a nobody pontificating about the market.
Readers are at liberty to fully disagree with my views. Why should I be spoiling the all time high party?
The rally is not real:
A really bold statement. I have put my neck on the line. It may be chopped off if the market keeps moving higher.
And I will not get an iota of appreciation if I am right.
But it is all about sharing what I believe in.
Even God appears different to different people; surely we can view the market differently.
These were the top 10 stocks in NIFTY 50 index as on September 30, 2021.
With minor variations, these 10 have remained in that position for most part of last one year.
These 10 stocks are the LEADERS of the market.
These 10 stocks carry 58% weight of the index.
Let us now see how these stocks have performed over last 365 days.
All are gainers. No surprise there.
RELIANCE — 18.08%
HINDUNILVR — 22.79%
TCS ————- 28.66%
HDFCBANK — 39.25%
KOTAKBANK — 49.03%
INFY ——- 50.75%
ITC ——— 52.74%
ICICIBANK — 78.56%
LT —– 95.26%
How much did NIFTY gain in 365 days — 53.19%
What is the significance of these numbers?:
8 out of the 10 heavy weight stocks have underperformed the index in last 365 days.
The LEADERS are not leading.
The biggest of them all, RELIANCE has gained just 18% while the index has run up 53%.
It is my experience that rallies not led by the leaders fizzle out and generally that correction is very painful.
That pain may come soon or maybe delayed. But it is sure to visit at some point.
The gains in NIFTY have come from TATAMOTORS, TATASTEEL, BAJAJFINSERV, HINDALCO, SBIN, JSWSTEEL, ONGC, BAJFIN, ADANIPORTS, GRASIM; these stocks have gained 279.9% to 129.70%.
None of them was a market fancy a year ago. Suddenly all the money goes to these stocks. Have the fundamentals of these businesses changed so much to warrant these kind of prices?
It may look like an irrelevant question today but when these stocks ( most of them ) go back to the earlier prices the pain will be immense.
Leaders are not leading. That is my cause for concern.
Two things can happen.
These top 10 stocks can now join the rally and take the index to new highs.
The other stocks may give back the spectacular gains they made and that will cause a correction.
I subscribe to the correction idea.
It may not come too soon, but will not be very late either.
Well, I expressed my views. I would like the comments from the readers.
Different views are important. Market runs because of different opinions.
Thanks for reading.