Finally it is expiry day. It has been a long journey from October 26, 2018 on wards.
Yesterday again NIFTY stayed positive. It seems market has decided to mock our choice of buying PUTS by moving up specially in this week.
In three days this week, NIFTY has moved up by more than 200 points. NIFTY had closed at 10124.90 on October 25 ( October Expiry ) and ended the day at 10728.85 on Wednesday. So far in 22 trading days, it has moved up by 604 points. A real big gain to make the bulls happy. Whether anyone made money is the real question? Answers to this important question are mostly negative. Before we analyze our position, it is how NIFTY moved over last one month.
Here in these pages we are basing our trades on the strength or weakness of individual stocks. With the overall strength in the market ( for whatever reasons ) most of our trades did not do well and we were looking at a loss of almost Rs. 45000 on an invested amount of Rs. 90000 yesterday morning.
A trader has to keep finding trades and even in such a gloomy situation there were three trades suggested for the day. All the three stocks were exhibiting obvious weakness. We required that the weakness should continue for two more days. It happened yesterday. Let us hope it continues today as well.
ONGC PUT 145 did very well. From a Buy Price of Rs. 1.00 it moved to close at Rs. 3.30.
Similarly YESBANK PUT 175 moved from Rs. 3.00 to Rs. 13.80.
VEDL did not deliver but stayed near the Buy Price of rs. 1.00. It may give some returns today or go worthless depending on which way the wind blows.
Among the previously existing trades TATAMOTORS did well to get In The Money and a similar down move today can give further profit.
IDEA too did well with PUT 40 moving to Rs. 2.40.
All is not yet lost. We have moved to manageable loss from a big loss.
The present Mark To Market loss is about Rs. 10500. It may change for good or bad. We have to be cautious in our trades and while waiting for good profit to come through, it is to be seen that the losses do not start creeping in.
In the 22 days of trading this month, we have bought a total of 13 contracts. Out of these 7 have gone wrong completely. Let us forget about them and focus our attention on the remaining 6. These are — IDEA, IBULHSGFIN, TATAMOTORS, ONGC, VEDL and YESBANK. Some of these are likely to do well. That should make our day.
With US Markets closing higher last night and SGX NIFTY trading 92 points higher as of this morning, we may be in for a tough session. Considering that most of Asia markets are mildly higher and Hong Kong is negative, the SGX NIFTY gains look little out of place. But markets do not run as per our wishes. Some reason will be invented for this gain and if it reverses, that too will be explained. For us these things do not matter.
What actually matters is the performance of the trades we are in. Be watchful and take appropriate exits as the day goes by.
No more trades for November Expiry. Let us find out where we stand at 3:30 pm.
Trade cautiously, trade profitably.
Disclaimer: This post and examples are for teaching purpose only and are not meant as advice/suggestion to trade in these stocks. Trading in Futures and Options can lead to big losses and should be done with appropriate knowledge and advice only. Mentioning the stocks here does not imply that I have a trading position or likely to take a trade in these stocks.
Teja November 29, 2018 at 11:07 am
Yesbank did well, we will end up in profit. 👍Reply
Ravi kumar November 29, 2018 at 11:46 am
YesBank is a saviour of the month…. So far so goodReply
Pranav November 29, 2018 at 3:55 pm
Sir, I had IDEA Put Buy at strike price 38 (OPT-IDECEL-29-Nov-2018-38-PE). I see the market closed at 37.85 spot price. I have let my position expire. Will I be losing my premium paid?Reply
admin November 29, 2018 at 4:01 pm
It closed at 37.85. You will get Rs. 1050 from the trade. Out of this amount there will be deduction for STT and other taxes. Approximately you may get around Rs. 650.Reply
MADAN MOHAN M November 29, 2018 at 5:52 pm
Dear sir, How the settlement price is calculated, is it weighted average price of last 30 minutes or 15 minutes,. you said some time back in this blog, i could not relocate it.Reply
admin November 29, 2018 at 6:55 pm
Settled price is the weighted average price during last 30 minutes of trading.Reply
KV Rao November 29, 2018 at 8:31 pm
I wonder anyone able to get YesBank at Rs.3 price. Stock opened Gap down.Reply
admin November 29, 2018 at 9:06 pm
Low price of the day was Rs. 2.55. So surely Rs. 3.00 was possible if the order was entered early enough.Reply
It stayed between Rs. 3-4 for quite some time.
Ravi kumar November 30, 2018 at 6:11 am
I bought Yesbank 175PE @ 3.3 and it went all the way upto Rs 27 at one point. Finally i booked profit at Rs. 15. Mistake was not to close at around high point and enter next strike.
In a loosing month, Yesbank was a silverlining! (I had misses out on IndiaBull & TaMo)Reply
Devendra November 30, 2018 at 6:39 am
@KV Rao, I got it for 2.75 Rs. I placed AMO order after seeing pre-opening Gap down.Reply
Beginner November 30, 2018 at 11:08 am
Hi.. just started following since a week.. I purchased idea Dec 40 CE.. @1.2 … Any views?Reply
admin November 30, 2018 at 3:46 pm
Good luck to you. At present IDEA is not giving any indication of an up move. It is already down to Rs. 35.10. To move up to 40, it has to go up by about 12%. Your premium paid is Rs. 1.20. For the trade to come good, IDEA has to move up by 15%.
it is possible. Last month it went up to 45 from 36.20. it can do it again. But you need a lot of patience to stay in the trade.