Finally it is expiry day. It has been a long journey from October 26, 2018 on wards.
Yesterday again NIFTY stayed positive. It seems market has decided to mock our choice of buying PUTS by moving up specially in this week.
In three days this week, NIFTY has moved up by more than 200 points. NIFTY had closed at 10124.90 on October 25 ( October Expiry ) and ended the day at 10728.85 on Wednesday. So far in 22 trading days, it has moved up by 604 points. A real big gain to make the bulls happy. Whether anyone made money is the real question? Answers to this important question are mostly negative. Before we analyze our position, it is how NIFTY moved over last one month.
Here in these pages we are basing our trades on the strength or weakness of individual stocks. With the overall strength in the market ( for whatever reasons ) most of our trades did not do well and we were looking at a loss of almost Rs. 45000 on an invested amount of Rs. 90000 yesterday morning.
A trader has to keep finding trades and even in such a gloomy situation there were three trades suggested for the day. All the three stocks were exhibiting obvious weakness. We required that the weakness should continue for two more days. It happened yesterday. Let us hope it continues today as well.
ONGC PUT 145 did very well. From a Buy Price of Rs. 1.00 it moved to close at Rs. 3.30.
Similarly YESBANK PUT 175 moved from Rs. 3.00 to Rs. 13.80.
VEDL did not deliver but stayed near the Buy Price of rs. 1.00. It may give some returns today or go worthless depending on which way the wind blows.
Among the previously existing trades TATAMOTORS did well to get In The Money and a similar down move today can give further profit.
IDEA too did well with PUT 40 moving to Rs. 2.40.
All is not yet lost. We have moved to manageable loss from a big loss.
The present Mark To Market loss is about Rs. 10500. It may change for good or bad. We have to be cautious in our trades and while waiting for good profit to come through, it is to be seen that the losses do not start creeping in.
In the 22 days of trading this month, we have bought a total of 13 contracts. Out of these 7 have gone wrong completely. Let us forget about them and focus our attention on the remaining 6. These are — IDEA, IBULHSGFIN, TATAMOTORS, ONGC, VEDL and YESBANK. Some of these are likely to do well. That should make our day.
With US Markets closing higher last night and SGX NIFTY trading 92 points higher as of this morning, we may be in for a tough session. Considering that most of Asia markets are mildly higher and Hong Kong is negative, the SGX NIFTY gains look little out of place. But markets do not run as per our wishes. Some reason will be invented for this gain and if it reverses, that too will be explained. For us these things do not matter.
What actually matters is the performance of the trades we are in. Be watchful and take appropriate exits as the day goes by.
No more trades for November Expiry. Let us find out where we stand at 3:30 pm.
Trade cautiously, trade profitably.
Disclaimer: This post and examples are for teaching purpose only and are not meant as advice/suggestion to trade in these stocks. Trading in Futures and Options can lead to big losses and should be done with appropriate knowledge and advice only. Mentioning the stocks here does not imply that I have a trading position or likely to take a trade in these stocks.