Finally, the September F&O series ended,
NIFTY closed much lower than where it closed in September Expiry. Good for us. This month was wonderful trading for us. Almost every trade went right at some stage. Some big profits could be taken which made the month the best ever trading month for most of the readers.
This is where NIFTY closed yesterday.
Let us see where do we go from here. Once again towards new high of 11760 or to the 2018 low of below 10000.
Whatever happens, journey is going to be very interesting.
This is where our trades ended on September 27, 2018.
We gave back the premiums in BHARTIARTL and HINDPETRO. It was more than made up by the other trades.
For the trades suggested yesterday, INFRATEL was not available for the recommended price and RELCAPITAL performed wonderfully. I got PUT 310 for Rs. 3.00 and exited at Rs. 17.00. Even if someone bought INFRATEL PUT 260 at a higher price and lost the money, RELCAPITAL PUT more than compensated for that loss.
We shall review the September Expiry trades in another post tomorrow or on Sunday.
It is time to move on to October Series.
This month too we will have 18 trading days with holidays falling on October 2 and 18.
Main Concern for October Series:
The volatile moves in financial stocks have made the option sellers jittery. Options have become very volatile. What had an Implied Volatility of 45 in September beginning, now has IV near 70. For us it means higher premiums. Sellers have considered the higher risk they are taking and demanding higher price for the options. Poor chaps the option buyers, we have to pay these higher prices. As it is our probability of being profitable is low. The added cost of higher premiums makes our task tougher.
We can not chose our market. But we can select our stocks. High volatility can be very rewarding if it works for us.
My Selections :
Like last month, let us begin in a small way. We have the weekend lined up immediately and then another holiday on Tuesday. It is better to keep the positions light.
BHARTIARTL:
In September Expiry, this stock did well at one stage for us. Only we did not cash out.
We have seen how IDEA crashed. BHARTIARTL too should shed some weight accordingly. My eyes are set on the 52 week low of Rs. 331 on July 18, 2018. Another trip in that direction is not ruled out.
The market is likely to open higher today.
We should be able to get PUT 340 in the price range Rs. 5.00-5.50.
HINDPETRO:
Same old story.
As long as Crude Oil and Dollar are strong, HINDPETRO is likely to move lower.
We go for PUT 240 in the price range Rs, 6.00-7.00.
These are my two trades for the day.
Disclaimer: This post and examples are for teaching purpose only and are not meant as advice/suggestion to trade in these stocks. Trading in Futures and Options can lead to big losses and should be done with appropriate knowledge and advice only. Mentioning the stocks here does not imply that I have a trading position or likely to take a trade in these stocks.
Comments
Prince Nahata September 28, 2018 at 9:05 am
Sir Thank you so much for your continuous patronage and guidance.
ReplyManas September 30, 2018 at 9:03 am
I also missed out. But I entered at around 9.5 and still see intra day gain of around 6k.
I think +- 5 rupees should be fine. When you are getting on huge movements.
ReplyManas Kumar October 1, 2018 at 6:16 pm
And today the profit is 23k notional at 1 point in time
ReplyTharik September 28, 2018 at 12:28 pm
I missed to take BhartiAirtel trade as I was not able to get at the suggested price… Looks like a huge miss.
Anyone able to take the trade ?
ReplySantosh September 28, 2018 at 12:50 pm
Bharti Airtel was a huge miss. Could not get at the right price.
ReplyJijo Paul September 28, 2018 at 2:26 pm
Hi Sir, will it be a good idea to go for AIRTEL 330 PUT instead? Missed the 340 PUT.
ReplyVarun September 28, 2018 at 2:41 pm
Could not buy Bharti airtel. Within minutes it shoot to 7. Should have bought at 7 also though :).
ReplyBought HindPetro at 6.50, I see there is a huge gap between bid and ask price. Sometimes a difference of 0.30
Ravi kumar September 28, 2018 at 3:57 pm
Same here..missed the price for airtel
ReplySHISHIR CHAKRABORTY September 28, 2018 at 6:37 pm
Hello Sir,
ReplyCongrats on a successful Sep Series. One question. You mentioned of rising volatility which is increasing the premium so why are we not waiting for few days to let the volatility scale down as the month proceeds before buying lots. Buying so early at high volatility will let the premiums erode at a faster rate when the vol. comes down later and that too when other option Greeks are also at play. Or do you think that coming days will show increase in volatility to aid our side?
Regards. Shishir
Varun September 29, 2018 at 10:38 am
If the oil price increases, hind petro price will come down. It’s inversely proportional. Since there is a speculation that oil might touch 100$, hind petro can come down heavily.
ReplyViswanathan September 28, 2018 at 11:44 pm
Sir, I always entered wrongly into HindPetro and lost some money. Could you please explain the logic between CrudeOil price and HindPetro. Is it inversely proportional ? how do you decide if stock will go down or up ? which is the best source to follow crude oil price ?
Reply