One of the question a trader deals with all the time is how to pick a stock for TRADING.
It is not about investing. It is about trading. We are in the trade for a short span of time, sometime as short as few minutes, maximum for a trading month i.e. up to expiry of monthly contracts.
I fail to understand the concern about picking a stock for day trading.
Any stock you choose ( name really does not matter ) can do either of two things:
Go Up or Go Down.
Trader is supposed to profit from the fluctuations not fall in love with the stock.
I have seen traders doing great analysis and then getting convinced that a particular stock XYZ will rise in price.
Yes, they got it right.
Price went up by 15% in a month.
What did they got out of it?
Well, a quick profit of 2% in two initial trades and lost the conviction during the rest of the upward move.
This is a story which gets repeated every time and traders blame the markets for irrational moves. It is the irrationality of the trader which has stopped him from making a profit. One has to ride the profit.
But we go by technical analysis, targets given by the experts and our sense of what is the right profit.
As if the market cares two hoots about any of these.
For day trades, just pick any of the stocks with good volumes and get familiar with its price fluctuations. Having done that, trade with the current trend. Keep a reasonable stop loss and wait for the profits come in. Big profits are possible in day trades also, do not try to cut the profits short by booking them too early. Be quick in getting out when in loss.
For Trading in Futures and Options ( Positional Trades ) :
There are as many methods as there are traders.
In the recent F&O Workshop at Delhi, someone inquired about How To Select A Stock for Trading ?
My answer was– Write the names of 50 NIFTY stocks on a board. Blindfold yourself and throw darts at this board. Pick the 5 stocks you hit with the darts.
In fact this may work.
What is important is not the stock picking, but staying with the right trade. If it has come into profit, stay with it. If it is losing, get out with a fixed loss.
I am repeating the above advice many times, but that is the only thing that works in the market.
Let Us Pick Some Stocks For Trading Today :
Positional ( Till March Expiry ) :
Over the last 30 day period, NIFTY has lost about 5.18 %. Even while NIFTY is losing, the above few stocks have stayed strong and outperformed.
Out of these, TECHMAHINDRA is close to 52 week high. RELIANCE is also staying firm. VEDANTA is strong but very volatile. Volatility is good for Option Buying, but can be very disruptive for trading Futures.
As NIFTY moved down, number of stocks moving down is high. We have to look for those who have done really bad. Trend may reverse for some of them, but there is always a reason for every move which we find out much later. Profit can not be made without sticking your neck out.
Out of these, TATA STEEL, SBIN, AXISBANK are the weakest.
I would not take a chance with TATA STEEL as the entire move is event based ( Bhushan Steel Acquisition ) but look for the general weakness also in the sector.
Automobile and Pharma are the current weak sectors. My choices for a short trade would be BAJAJ AUTO, TATA MOTORS ( near 52 week low) and MARUTI.
Add to that SBIN from the Banking Sector and LUPIN from Pharma .
Summary of Selections :
I know I am sticking out my neck and it may be chopped.
But nothing significant is ever achieved without having a belief, a method and acting upon that belief.
Buy Selection : TECHMAHINDRA, RELIANCE
Sell Selections : BAJAJAUTO, TATAMOTORS, MARUTI, SBIN and LUPIN.
These decisions are taken based on closing prices on February 27, 2018.
We do not know which way the market will move in the coming days but the trades will be doing what they have to do. Either go right or go wrong. Let us see what happens with these selections.
I will review these stock movements on daily basis and post here.
Keep reading and trade profitably.
Important Disclaimer : This post and examples are for teaching purpose only and are not meant as advice/suggestion to trade in these stocks. Trading in Futures and Options can lead to big losses and should be done with appropriate knowledge and advice only. Mentioning the stocks here does not imply that I have a trading position or likely to take a trade in these stocks.
Uttam February 28, 2018 at 11:48 am
Good strategy Sir, keep on posting your views. We learn lot from you. Thanks.Reply
vijaya February 28, 2018 at 2:34 pm
Thank you very much Sir, this will be very helpful.Reply
Tarun February 28, 2018 at 3:49 pm
Great sentence: But nothing significant is ever achieved without having a belief, a method and acting upon that belief.Reply
Umesh March 5, 2018 at 2:00 pm
Thanks a lot for sharing sir.Reply
Rupesh March 6, 2018 at 10:28 am
It is very good to read your posts.Reply
Abhishek March 6, 2018 at 12:30 pm
RELIANCE 940 Call Expiry 28th March
Bought at 19.80 can you throw some knowledge hereReply
siva August 8, 2018 at 9:05 am
shravan kumar vudari September 9, 2018 at 10:47 pm
M D Shivashankar June 21, 2019 at 8:56 pm
Very well explained in simple language. All theories go wrong except our personal behavior of the few stocks we frequently trade in. True practical training which works. I liked your suggestion “learn to book loss when in wrong direction” which seldom we do. We wait for profit when loss is mounting & quit when more profits are in pipeline. Thanks & regards. Keep guiding us.Reply
Ritesh Kr. Dubey June 8, 2020 at 8:15 pm
Hello Sir, I came here after reading your wise answers on quora. My question is that, is this thought process equally valid for equity trading also, or, is it valid only for F&O trading?Reply
Pramod Kumar June 9, 2020 at 7:14 am
It is valid for equity trading too. But there you can not profit from short trading because trades would have to be closed daily.
Veera Joshy June 28, 2020 at 6:39 pm
Very useful advice. I would like to learn more. Thank you for sharing your knowledge.Reply