I had started the Series about stock selection on February 28.

Based on the price data available as of close on 27 February, the first 6 selections were listed on February 28 post.


The stocks for going long were— TECHMAHINDRA and RELIANCE

The stocks for going short were — BAJAJAUTO, TATAMOTORS, MARUTI, SBIN and LUPIN.

We had seen that these trades along with few more added during the March Expiry month could have given a profit of almost Rs. 2.49 lakhs with just 16 trades.

Weakness and strength are trends. They persist over a period of time before the reversal happens.

Today  we are reviewing over a longer period.

We shall test all our selections from the first day these were suggested/selected till close on May 18, 2018.

RELIANCE : Close on February 27 was Rs. 950.50. On May 18, it is Rs. 933.85. We are wrong by a small percentage.

TECHMAHINDRA: Close on February 27 was Rs. 610.55. By May 18, it has moved up to Rs. 692.95. We are right by more than 12% here.

Let us look at the SELL selections:

BAJAJAUTO : Close on February 27 was Rs. 3034.70. On May 18, it closed at Rs. 2787.50. Well, we are right again and by a good margin.

TATAMOTORS : As far as shorting goes, we could not have asked for more. This stock has made new 52 week lows on a number of occasions in this period. On February 27, it ended up at Rs. 372.55. On May 18, it made the latest 52 week low of Rs. 303.50 before closing the day at Rs. 304.60. A big decline and we had cked the weakness well in time.

MARUTI : Maruti was trading at Rs. 8891.20. It did not turn weak immediately. In fact, it gave us a loss in March Expiry. It showed weakness n last week only and the Closing Price on May 18 was Rs. 8510.95. A mild decline not matching the other two automobile stocks we selected. But we take what the market gives us. It is still a right selection.

SBIN : From Rs. 267.60 on February 27, it is now down to Rs. 238.85 on May 18. The stock has lost more than 10% in this period and is currently about 2.5% higher than the 52 week low. May go lower than that soon if the weakness persists.

LUPIN : When we selected Lupin in March Expiry, it went down significantly and was a good success for our selection process. In April Expiry, it went wrong. Let us look at the present status— Well, it has moved down from Rs. 826.30 on February 27 to Rs. 743.70 on May 18. About 9% decline, we shall gladly take it.

These were our first 7 selections.

Out of these only 1 has gone wrong and other 6 have come right in different magnitude and that speaks well for our selection process.

On March 01, 2018 , INDIABULL HOUSING FINANCE was added to the SELL SELECTIONS.

INDBULLHSGF: From Rs. 1256.30 on March 01, 2018, it has come down to Rs. 1139.05 on May 18. It has not been a one way journey. This stock had gone wrong for us and made a high of about 1387 also in this period. But the trend manifests itself on the price action at some point and that finally happened with this stock too.

Again bulls eye for us and our selection process.

On March 07, 2018, we added BOSCH LTD to our SELL SELECTIONS.

I have actually not tracked this stock after going mildly wrong with it in March Expiry. Let us see where we stand today if it was a long term call.

BOSCH : It was at Rs. 17848 on March 07. On May 18, it closed at Rs. 17713. Not a great selection. But not wrong also. It is down by less than 1%. So be it.

On March 13, 2018, KOTAKBANK was added as a BUY SELECTION. It did not work out in March Expiry and there was a loss. But it gained momentum later. Let us see what is the present status.

KOTAKBANK : On March 13, 2018 it was at Rs. 1083.90. On May 18 it has moved up to Rs. 1294.40. A huge up move of more than Rs. 200. A selection which goes right by 18% is a great selection. It is another matter that I did not make any money out of it.

On March 16, BHEL was added to the SELL LIST. It turned out to be a great choice in March, very bad in April and an excellent choice in May. In fact in May Expiry I have bought a PUT at Rs. 0.85 and sold it for Rs. 4.90. We see such down moves not so frequently.

BHEL : BHEL had closed at Rs. 87.05 when the selection was made. On May 18, it made the new 52 week low of Rs. 76.00 before closing at Rs. 76.40. A really great down move.

On March 22, we added NTPC to BUY LIST.

NTPC : From Rs. 170.95 on March 22, it has cm down to Rs. 166.60. Well, this one went wrong. We take it in our stride and move on.

On March 23, we added two SELL SELECTIONS— RELCAPITAL and RPOWER.

Let us see how they have performed since then :

RELCAPITAL : Has moved down from Rs. 410 to Rs. 380 levels from March 23 to May 18. On May 16, made a new 52 week low of Rs. 363.90 but recovered sharply from there. Still a right trade for us.

RPOWER : Close on March 23 was Rs. 36.90. Close on May 18 was Rs. 33.80. On May 16, it made a 52 week low of Rs. 32.40. Anyway, the 3.10 decline is more than 8% and we take it gladly.


This is how it has performed:

HINDPETRO : On March 27, it closed at Rs. 346.90. On May 18, the closing price was Rs. 312. A 10% decline is good for us. For the record it made a 52 week low of Rs. 288.50 on May 07 confirming that our picking the weakness in this stock was absolutely right.

VEDANTA ( VEDL) was selected as a SELL on March 28. The review follows:

VEDL : The close on March 27 was Rs. 287 when the selection was made. This price was available on March 28 also. The close on May 18 is Rs. 270.30. Not a huge decline but the price has certainly moved down and that makes our selection right.

Summary :

In the month of March ( last day of February included) , we had made a total of 16 selections.

4 for BUYING.

12 for SELLING.

We have reviewed them for the overall trend till May 18, 2018 and found that:

Only 2 BUY selections have gone wrong.

14 selections ( 2 BUY and all 12 SELL ) have gone right over this period.

Still looking for some magical stock selection method?

Look within yourself. You are the magician. We did not need or use any special software or complex calculators or screeners to get these fabulous results.

Adopt simplicity and have faith in your methods.

Like I said earlier, everyone can do it right.

It is a review of the first set of selections. For the selections made in April and May, I will be posting the review tomorrow.

Looking for your comments/suggestions/selections.

Thanks for reading.