Many readers have commented that they had never seen such a day.
Most likely they are new traders. Many in the media also made similar sounding statements. These are the people with blinkered vision. They have forgotten all about the year 2008. It is not fashionable to talk about market falls. Buy we can not close our eyes and shut out the truth.
Let me show you how volatile the market could be and how brutal the falls have been in the past.
This is NIFTY in January 2008:
NIFTY had made the then all time high of 6357 on January 08, 2008.
On January 22, the low was 4448.
Points lost in 2 weeks — 1907. Look at the %age loss — 29.9%
Now imagine that if NIFTY lost 30% from the recent all time high of 11760.20, where would it be. This kind of fall would take it to 8232.
Those who are getting scared at 11143 ( Friday Close) , how will they face 8200 level.
Do not tell me it can not happen.
It may not happen. I agree.
NIFTY had recovered in January 2008 to 5137 by end of month but had lost around 18% in one month.
If you think this was bad, I am telling you it was just a preview.
Well, here I can say — I have never seen anything like this before.
NIFTY was at 4000 on October 01, 2008. Considerably down from the January high of 6357.
And then the real crash happened.
On October 27, NIFTY made a low of 2252.
October high to October low was a down move of 43.7%.
Just imagining this kind of move now gives me shudders.
This kind of move from recent high would take NIFTY to 6703. How does that sound for comfort?
Again it may not happen.
The days highlighted in the above image are the days when NIFTY showed a volatility of about 10% or more in a single day.
Is A Crash Likely? :
Only one bankruptcy has been exposed yet. (ILFS)
Many are hidden. The infrastructure sector in Roads and Power is the real non performer and all the balance sheets are just plain lies. So are the balance sheets of their lenders. If they become public knowledge ( if our armchair TV anchors speak the truth for a change), we can see a big correction.
If we keep our heads buried in sand like we have been doing for last 3-4 years and keep believing in the hype , it will be alright for the present but then we may see a huge crash few months later.
Facts have a way of coming to surface however hard we may try to brush them aside.
This was my take on the mildly volatile Friday trades. Compared to what we have seen in the past ( and may see in the future), this was really mild.
Let us be watchful about what happens next.
Tharik September 23, 2018 at 10:22 am
Thanks for your post Sir. We should be highly thankful for the experience you share with us, as we are relatively new to the markets. A volatile move of 10% move in a day, can keep lot of retailers away for a prolonged period of time. It give me shudders to think about it too.Reply
Ravi kumar September 23, 2018 at 10:30 am
Errie similarity I sense. 2008 and 2018 ..a gap of 10 years.. and crash happened in 2008 October.. and we are heading to October 2018 and we just saw a trailer of sorts in what could be a block buster release in few days as we step into October series… but as you said.. crash may or may not happen but let’s hope it happens and more importantly our picks end in profitsReply
Rajesh September 23, 2018 at 6:57 pm
Hello Sir, Can you make a list of stock that can get affected by IL&FS bankruptcy or similar level company. I know most of NBFC company are gonna affect of this issue. Am I correct?Reply
Nishanth Kumar September 24, 2018 at 4:25 pm
Dear Mr Pramod,
Greetings…..Just want to know when would be the next hyderabad session on option trading. pls confirm. You have replied that it could be probably 23rd Sept 2018 but i didnt find it anywhere in the website. Pls confirm sir.